It’s been a month to forget for the Buffalo Bills, who aim to flip their fortunes in the second half of the schedule — starting with a MNF odds matchup against the Denver Broncos in the Week 10 odds finale.
After a 3-1 start to the season — both straight up and against the spread — Buffalo has scraped together two wins in its last five games and is a horrendous 0-5 ATS during this run. Despite that precipitous downfall, the Bills remain hefty home favorites tonight.
Denver appears to be heading in the opposite direction, with back-to-back wins and an extended break that last saw it in action on October 29 when they upset divisional rival Kansas City in Week 8.
I break down the NFL odds for this Monday Night Football match and give my best NFL picks for the Broncos vs. Bills on November 13.
Be sure also to check out our MNF player props and our Josh Allen props to round out your betting slate tonight!
Broncos vs Bills odds
Broncos vs Bills predictions
Prime time has produced profits for Under bettors so far in 2023. Heading into Week 10, the Under is a red-hot 23-7 in those showcase games. We can add another Under to the pile on Monday night.
I’m not betting this game Under the total blindly based on this trend but feel that points could be a premium considering the matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills.
Denver’s defense was at a historic pace early in the season: historically bad. But over the past three games, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has tightened the screws in many key areas.
The Broncos have jumped from 22nd in red zone defense (61.90% TD% allowed) to second over the past three games (27.27%), shrinking EPA allowed per play from dead last (32nd) to 13th since Week 6.
Denver has also become much more dangerous, forcing six turnovers over the past three outings, with three of those takeaways coming via interceptions off Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen has struggled with interceptions recently, throwing 14 picks over his past 13 games going back to last season.
Buffalo’s offense has had a tough time finishing drives and those turnovers have been a big part of it. The Bills owned the second-best RZ touchdown rate through the first six weeks (72.73%) but have scored touchdowns on just 54.55% of red-zone possessions the past three outings.
Buffalo takes on a Denver secondary that has vastly improved since making some shifts to the starting lineup. The Broncos proved themselves by limiting Mahomes and the Chiefs’ downfield attack twice this season and their zone-heavy schemes will force Allen and the Bills to settle for shorter gains and limit the amount of big plays.
The lack of offensive efficiency hasn’t been able to make up for the gaps in Buffalo's defense. Injuries to standouts like LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White, and DT DaQuan Jones have left it missing key cogs at every level of the stop unit. And more bodies are missing in the secondary heading into Monday night, with safety Micah Hyde ruled out.
However, Denver doesn’t pose a high-powered threat against this ailing group. The Broncos haven’t scored more than 24 points in the past four games and while Sean Payton’s playbook is efficient, it’s been more methodical than anything.
Denver ranks among the most plodding offenses in the NFL — sitting 28th in terms of second per play — and has been extra slow the previous three outings. The Broncos most recently chewed up 33:47 in time of possession in Week 8 upset win over the Chiefs.
The Broncos are solid on third downs and boast a success rate of 43.2% per play (15th) on the season. Denver is getting improved production from the rushing attack in recent showings, sitting No. 6 in EPA per handoff and averaging 4.7 yards per carry the past three games.
Buffalo hasn’t been great at stuffing the run this season, sitting in the bottom third of the league in EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run. The Bills battled a solid Broncos offensive line and could also be without LB Terrel Bernard (concussion).
Both teams have produced Under results in recent weeks, with Denver staying below the number in three straight while Buffalo is 1-4 O/U in its last five games.
My best bet: Under 47.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Broncos vs Bills same-game parlay
Under 47.5
Josh Allen Under 267.5 passing yards
Javonte Williams Over 55.5 rushing yards
30% boost available
The pace of play from both of these offenses ranks among the slowest in the league, and I don’t expect many explosive plays Monday night.
Allen will work against zone-heavy schemes from the Broncos, who have done a great job limiting recent passers and protecting against the home run.
Williams is anchoring a Denver rushing game picking up steam and helping the Broncos ice opposing offenses on the sideline.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Broncos vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
Look-ahead markets have Buffalo as big as -8.5 for this prime-time game before the Bills took a tumble against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9.
The official Week 10 spread hit the board at Bills -7.5 and held steady there for most of the week. However, there has been play on the underdog at +7.5 which has slimmed this spread to a touchdown as of Sunday morning.
According to Covers Consensus, 65% of picks are siding with Buffalo at home on Monday while sportsbooks like BetMGM are reporting 52% of bets taking the points with the Broncos but 66% of handle riding on the Bills.
The Over/Under total for Monday Night Football opened at 45.5 points and has climbed to 46.5 across the market, as of Sunday morning. Covers Consensus is showing 56% of picks on the Under while BetMGM sportsbooks are reporting 83% of ticket count and 84% of money banking on a low-scoring game.
Denver brings a 4-4 Over/Under record to Orchard Park, having stayed below the closing number in each of its last three games — thanks to that improving defense. The Broncos run one of the slowest tempos in the NFL, ranked 28th in second per play (29.5).
Buffalo is 3-6 O/U this season, going Under in four of its last five outings. The Bills offensive output has slowed with Allen dealing with a shoulder injury and the playbook has had to change with the loss of TE1 Dawson Knox, leaving Buffalo to get away from its increase in 12-personnel formations. The Bills sit 24th in tempo but have played faster the previous three weeks (27.8 seconds per play).
The forecast for Highmark Stadium calls for chilly temperatures feeling close to freezing on Monday night with wind gusts blowing West at up 24 mph (corner to corner).
Broncos vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills have played to a 6-3 Over/Under record for 1Q totals heading into Week 10. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Bills.
Broncos vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Monday, November 13, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Bills -7.5, 46 |
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