The Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns hobble into Thursday Night Football, battered and bruised and fresh off ugly losses in Week 6.
Cleveland will be down key starters on both sides of the ball and, most importantly, Baker Mayfield as Case Keenum gets set to start under center in primetime.
Find out how Keenum and injuries on both sides will factor in with our free NFL picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Browns on Thursday, October 21.
Broncos vs Browns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Browns were -6 on the look-ahead, opened at -5, slipped to -3.5, and then hit -2 after Mayfield was ruled out Wednesday morning. The total has also fallen to 41 after opening at 44.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Broncos vs Browns picks
Picks made on 10/20/2021 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Browns game info
• Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX, NFL NETWORK
Broncos at Browns betting preview
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Key injuries
Broncos: Brett Rypien QB (Out), Mike Boone RB (Out), Kary Vincent CB (Out), Jamar Johnson CB (Out), Baron Browning LB (Out), Cameron Fleming T (Out), Aaron Patrick LB (Out), Josey Jewell LB (Out).
Browns: Baker Mayfield QB (Out), Nick Chubb RB (Out), AJ Green CB (Out), Ifeadi Odenigbo DE (Out), Hjalte Froholdt G (Out), Jack Conklin T (Out), Tommy Togiai DT (Out), Kareem Hunt RB (Out), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in Browns’ last six vs. AFC opponents. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Browns.
Broncos vs Browns predictions
Broncos +2 (-108)
Cleveland opened at -5 but has since fallen to -2, as the Browns’ injury report covers nearly every skill position on the offense, and starting quarterback Baker Mayfield has been ruled out. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are also out while the team’s two starting tackles are questionable after missing last week. Cleveland's WR1, WR2, and TE1 are also questionable.
The Browns will go with capable backup Case Keenum, who has 62 NFL starts under his belt but hasn't started a game since 2019. Oddsmakers believe this is a substantial downgrade as the Browns came off the -3. Trusting Keenum on a short week versus a Broncos defense that sits ninth in defensive success rate is a tough call.
The Cleveland backfield should be split between D'Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton. Running backs are pretty interchangeable but this is a big difference in skill from Chubb and Hunt. Doing this without a pair of starting tackles could also be problematic for an offense that managed just 3.8 yards per carry last week. Pass catchers Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and David Njoku are also questionable. This is a tough offense to get behind on Thursday.
This line would probably favor Denver if it looked half-decent last week, but it didn’t. The Broncos got blown out of the water by the Gruden-less Raiders 34-24, sending Denver to its third straight loss after starting the season 3-0. Teddy Bridgewater took a beating, getting sacked five times and hit another 17 times. The pressure helped force three interceptions from the Denver QB.
Denver's linebacking corps is also devastated, as Alexander Johnson hit the IR. He was graded as the best LB versus the run per Pro Football Focus. His absence might have a bigger effect against a team with its running game at 100 percent, but the injuries to the Browns should help mitigate this loss for the Broncos.
Let’s not forget this Denver team closed as a pick ‘em at home to the Ravens in Week 4, was a two-point favorite at Pittsburgh in Week 5, and a five-point favorite last week. The results haven’t been there but this is still a team that hasn't been the betting underdog in any game this year and now gets to face a decimated Cleveland squad who is also without its best middle linebacker in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was PFF’s No. 3 graded linebacker.
We hope you were proactive in getting the Broncos at +3.5 earlier in the week but we still don't trust the Cleveland offense, even at the discounted -2. Denver blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league and could force Keenum into some poor decisions on a short prep week. Too many unknowns for us.
Over 41 (-111)
Lacking the majority of your skilled players is a good way to drop a total. This number opened at 44.5 and was set knowing the injuries to the Cleveland offense. Bettors didn’t think it was low enough as this total tumbled to 41 and is the lowest total on the Week 7 slate.
Thursday Night Football and the short week are 4-0 to the Under since Week 3. This 41-point total also comes in as the lowest TNF total of the season, one point lower than Week 3’s CAR/HOU snoozer. But even with a wounded Cleveland offense, this total is approaching a no-Under zone.
The Cleveland defense looked straight up bad versus a team without its head coach last week, as Arizona put up 37 points and scored TDs in four of seven red zone trips. Mayfield didn’t help out much after turning the ball over three times, but neither did the nine penalties and 88 yards by Cleveland. The Browns’ defense has allowed 79 points over the last two weeks and although the Denver offense doesn’t compare to the Cardinals or Chargers, Bridgewater’s offense is the No. 11 offense in success rate, ranked between the Colts and Titans. This is an underrated offense that is starting to feature rookie running back Javonte Williams who is the only player in the league with three runs of 30-plus yards and is also a threat in the passing game.
The Denver defense has also not been living up to its reputation of late as it has allowed 84 points over the last three weeks and its 6.7 yards per play allowed since Week 4 is the highest number in the league. Missing its two middle linebackers is a huge loss for this team.
We aren’t asking for either of these offenses to ball out on Thursday, but neither defense comes into the TNF match in great form and with a total of 41, we might have to fade a pair of wounded defenses. These two teams also combined for six turnovers last week.
D’Ernest Johnson Under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Browns’ backfield is a giant question mark without Hunt and Chubb. D’Ernest Jonson saw 12 snaps last week in a negative game script that saw the 25-year-old undrafted RB take one rush for two yards while adding one grab on two targets. Demetric Felton also saw the same number of snaps as Johnson (12) and caught both of his targets for 14 yards.
At 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds, Johnson projects as the early-down back but the prop market might be a little high on the third-year runner, as his rushing yard prop is as high as 60.5 yards. That’s nearly as high as Khalil Herbert’s rushing total a week ago and Herbert had shown flashes of upside prior to taking over the No. 1 role in an offense that hates to pass.
So many things can go wrong for Johnson on his quest for 61 yards. A fumble could relegate him to second-hand duties, Felton could impress and get more looks, or the Browns could split carries down the middle.
The Broncos have the league’s No. 13 success rate against the run and held Josh Jacobs to 53 yards on 16 rushes last week. This line seems high by 5-10 yards and we’re starting to see it drop already.
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