It’s primetime, and that means another dose of Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, who head to SoFi Stadium as 4.5-point dogs to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Wilson will look to silence critics, and that could be beneficial to bettors while both teams could have success on the ground Monday night.
Find out in my free NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football between the Broncos vs. Chargers.
Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full betting preview for this matchup.
Broncos vs Chargers props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Chargers MNF props
Dark side of the Boone
The Los Angeles Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in football. Opposing running backs are averaging 124 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth-most in football. They also sit just 20th in success rate and 29th in EPA/rush.
Nick Chubb carried the ball 17 times for 134 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Chargers last week, Prior to that, Dameon Pierce and James Robinson both exceeded 100+ yards on the ground as well.
With Melvin Gordon dealing with neck and rib injuries, Mike Boone could have a big day. He saw 41% of the backfield snaps in the last game where Javonte Williams was out (torn ACL). Boone carried the ball seven times for 38 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and could have a bigger role Monday night. Denver will want to take the pressure off of Russell Wilson and run against this soft defense that’s allowing a league-high 5.8 ypc.
With no Denver RB rushing totals available as of Friday, I’m hitting the Boone anytime touchdown market that is as high as +250. With Gordon’s fumble issues and Wilson’s questionable decision-making inside the 20, Boone could be the one seeing the carries near the goal line going forward.
I’d prefer the Over on his rushing total for any number below 39 yards, but the market isn't open at the time of writing. If Gordon is limited all weekend, the price of +250 could drop quickly.
Mike Boone Prop: Anytime touchdown (+250)
Run the Jewells
Linebacker Josey Jewell is a very important part of the Broncos’ rush defense, as he leads the team in total tackles while only playing in three of the five games. Pro Football Focus has him as the eighth-best linebacker vs. the run.
Jewell left Week 5’s contest vs. the Colts and is in danger of missing the prime-time game as he was a DNP at practice on Thursday. Denver added linebacker depth to their practice squad, which indicates Jewell is more doubtful than probable.
Considering the Chargers are more than a field-goal favorite, Los Angeles' running game could have a big day. Austin Ekeler is coming off a 16-carry, 173-yard performance last week and has seen at least 13 carries in four of his five games. Joshua Kelley is also handling some totes and might be worth a flier at +300 for a TD, but Ekeler’s Over 57.5 rushing yards is a good number in a game with a matchup that favors him.
The Chargers ran the ball a season-high 49% last week. With Ekeler getting roughly 60% of the carries for the Bolts, the RB would need just 11 carries at a 5.1 ypc clip in order to hit the Over.
Denver is allowing 4.7 yards per rush on the season, but the likely loss of Jewell certainly makes this an easier team to run against.
Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Separation anxiety
It’s easy to crap on Russell Wilson, and most of it is warranted. However, the Denver receivers are struggling to get separation which is leading to a lot of problems as well for the Broncos' quarterback.
PlayerProfiler has Wilson’s receiver target separation at just 1.55 yards. Even with all the talent the Broncos have at wide receiver, Wilson is forcing balls into tighter windows which is a big reason for a completion percentage below 60%. Wilson is also dealing with a “shoulder” injury, and although it’s likely nothing, I also thought that about Carson Wentz before his awful performance on TNF.
Wilson is looking downfield and not seeing open receivers. He ranks 26th in time to throw and seemingly holds the ball forever. Because of this, he has been taking off more often and has topped his rushing total in three straight weeks. His rushing total closed at 13.5 yards last week, but as a bigger underdog Monday, the total has risen to 16.5.
Although I think the three-yard move seems like quite a lot, this is another good matchup to bet the Over. Besides, Denver's wideouts have struggled in separation against worse secondaries than the Chargers this season.
With his legacy on the line, I’m hoping Wilson gets as creative as possible. This would include doing some things himself on the ground.
Russell Wilson Prop: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-105)
