Two teams who believe they have their quarterback of the future square off on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium when the Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts.
Through two week, neither has shown anything worth writing home about, but my Bears vs. Colts predictions lean in favor of Caleb Williams playmaking ability.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 22.
Bears vs Colts prediction
My best bet
Bears moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Bears head to Lucas Oil Stadium with a 1-1 record, and we can definitely say two things about them through two weeks: the defense is good, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams hasn’t been.
The Bears' stop unit has impressed with ranks of first in pass-rush win rate and second in run-stop win rate while also holding opponents to the fourth-lowest EPA per play. Their four takeaways are tied for fourth, and of course, Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson has already thrown four interceptions and added two fumbles that luckily didn’t result in additional turnovers.
Turning to Williams, a Week 3 date with the winless Colts is an opportunity for him to take another step forward against the weakest defense he’s faced yet. Indianapolis ranks 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play, and the Colts haven’t been able to generate a consistent pass rush with 26th-ranked pass-rush win rate and 28th-ranked pass-rush grade, per PFF.
Chicago protecting its franchise quarterback will be the key because Indianapolis has also surrendered the highest catch percentage to wide receivers (77.4%) and quarterbacks have tossed for the eighth-highest yards per attempt (7.74).
Considering how much better Chicago’s defense has been through two weeks, it’s not out of the question to suggest the Bears would be the favorite if Williams had shown more in his first two games, either. I expect his best game yet, and to be in winning fashion on Sunday.
Bears vs Colts same-game parlay
Bears moneyline
Caleb Williams Over 212.5 passing yards
DJ Moore Over 64.5 receiving yards
As discussed, Indy checks out as an excellent matchup for the Chicago passing attack. Bears No. 1 wide receiver DJ Moore has been the go-to option for Williams, and the duo have connected for 11 receptions and 89 yards on 18 targets through two games. While those aren’t standout numbers, Moore has garnered a 28.6% target share and played 92% of Chicago’s offensive snaps.
Simply put, when Williams and the Bears' vertical attack takes off in Week 3, Moore is also going to be a major reason why.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bears vs Colts odds
Bears vs Colts live odds
Bears vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +1.5 | Indianapolis -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +104 | Indianapolis -117
- Over/Under: Over 42 | Under 42
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bears vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
- Pinnacle hasn’t moved off its opening Colts -1.5 spread despite taking back-and-forth action on both teams.
- There has been movement at bet365, though. The shop had a look-ahead line of Indy -2.5 before reopening at -1.5, and bet365 has also tested both Colts -2 and -1 before returning to the -1.5.
- This total has climbed from the opening 42.5 to 43.5 at Pinnacle, and the Over is carrying the higher vig as of Thursday evening.
- There was more movement at bet365 with the look-ahead number at 46.5 before the shop reopened at 46. The number dropped all the way to 42.5 before climbing back to 43.5.
Bears vs Colts betting trend to know
The Chicago Bears have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.50 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Colts.
Bears vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bears vs Colts latest injuries
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