Broncos vs Chargers Week 16 Picks and Predictions

Chargers QB Justin Herbert has already tied the rookie record for touchdown passes and is closing in on the record for completions and yards with two games left in the season.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Dec 23, 2020 • 08:02 ET
Justin Herbert NFL Los Angeles Chargers
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown where the two young quarterbacks will be center stage.

The Chargers' Justin Herbert is still striding towards several rookie passing records, while the Broncos have to figure out if Drew Lock is the man to lead them into the future. Oddsmakers like the Chargers’ situation a little more, making them 3-point home favorites.

We break down the NFL odds with our best free Broncos vs. Chargers picks and predictions for Sunday, December 27, with kickoff at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

Weather

The game will be played indoors at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key Injuries

Broncos: Bradley Chubb LB (Out), Phillip Lindsay RB (Out), Von Miller LB (Out). 
Chargers: Joey Bosa DE (Out), Keenan Allen WR (Out), Hunter Henry TE (Out), Uchenna Nwosu LB (Out). 
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Over is 4-0 in the Broncos' last four versus a team with a losing record, and 8-3 in the Chargers' last 11 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

It’s clear the Chargers have found their franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert has already tied the rookie record for touchdown passes and is closing in on the record for completions and yards with two games left in the season. Next up on the list for Herbert is the Broncos.

The Broncos edged the Chargers 31-30 in the Week 8 meeting, but Herbert went 29-43 for 278 yards and three touchdowns and two picks, and the Broncos have had their troubles with the better quarterbacks this season. And life in this game could be a little easier for the rookie, as Broncos pass rusher Bradley Chubb is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Denver offense, on the other hand, has not been as productive, due in large part to Lock’s struggles. The second-year man out of Mizzou is completing just 57.7 percent of his passes and has nearly as many interceptions (13) as touchdowns (14). To make matters worse, the Chargers rank seventh against the pass.

The Broncos will try to lean on the run against a suspect Chargers rush defense, but that won’t be enough to keep them in this matchup. Top it off with the Broncos’ affinity for turnovers, and the Chargers should pull out the cover at home.

PREDICTION: Chargers -3 (-110)

 

Over/Under Pick

The total for this AFC West showdown is at 48.5 as of Tuesday night, and it could be a tad too low. For starters, the Over has cashed in the Broncos' last four games against teams with a losing record. Denver has allowed 29.8 points per contest in those games, and an average of 32 points per game in their last four overall.

Additionally, the Broncos should be able to move the ball a bit on the ground with Melvin Gordon and Phllip Lindsay against a Chargers run defense that ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Second, the Chargers have been an Over darling for the most part this season, and are 8-3 to the Over in their last 11 games. To boot, it looked like the offense broke out of its semi-funk last week against the Raiders. Fifty points in this game seems very reasonable.

PREDICTION: Over 48.5 (-110)

Broncos vs Chargers Betting Card

  • Chargers -3 (-110)
  • Over 48.5 (-110)
NFL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Broncos vs. Chargers picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where Can I Bet on the NFL?

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Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew “Taco” Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he’s been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS.

These days Andrew’s betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams – the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He’s also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can’t be friends with you if you don’t appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers’ Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows.

The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It’s not an interesting story. Seriously.

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