Sunday night is capped off with a pivotal AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead, with Mahomes and Co. entering as 9.5-point NFL betting favorites.
Andy Reid is coming off the bye and we all know what that means. Can Javonte Williams expose a weak Kansas City rush defense with a likely bigger role? Can Mahomes and the offense hit some big plays versus Vic Fangio’s defense?
Find out in our free prop picks for Sunday night’s Broncos vs. Chiefs battle.
Broncos vs Chiefs prop picks
- Javonte Williams Over 25.5 receiving yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Byron Pringle anytime TD and Albert Okwuegbunam anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Chiefs SNF props
Javonte up
Melvin Gordon is doubtful to suit up Sunday night, which has plenty in the betting and fantasy world excited as we will finally see rookie running back Javonte Williams given the keys to the offense. Unfortunately, the market is aware of the running back’s skill set and has driven up the number on his rushing total, which sits at 75.5 yards. As 9.5-point underdogs, it’s tough to take a high rush total from a team that is probable to play from behind.
If we put together a single game parlay in bet365 and add the Chiefs -9.5 (-110) and the Over 75.5 rushing yards for Williams (-110) we get odds of +600. Basically, the book is saying there is a 14% (in actuality, likely a little less) chance of Williams topping this rushing total and Chiefs covering, thanks to negative correlation.
Instead, we’re hitting the Over 25.5 receiving yards for Williams, as his role in the passing game should stay consistent in what Vegas thinks will be a Kansas City victory by more than a TD. Gordon averages 15.5 receiving yards per game while Williams is coming off a four-catch 57-yard performance last week, in what was mostly a positive game script.
We’re already on his touchdown prop of +140 at bet365 and are adding the Over 25.5 on his receiving yards. It will be exciting to see what the rookie running back can do against a Kansas City defense that allows the fifth-most RB receiving yards per game.
PICK: Javonte Williams Over 25.5 receiving yards (-120 at PointsBet)
Clyde the glide
With all the talk about Denver's defense, it’s pretty soft against the run. The Broncos’ defense ranks 21st in rush EPA and 28th in rush success rate. The Chargers finished with just 72 rushing yards last week but they are one of the lowest rushing rate teams in the league.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire should come into this Week 13 matchup close to 100 percent healthy after the bye. He saw 12 of the team’s 17 running back carries two weeks and still topped 60 yards in the mediocre usage role. He’s averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry and we’re hoping he can handle 14-16 carries in a game that is projected to have Kansas City playing in a positive game script as 9.5-point favorites.
Denver is allowing 5.1 yards per carry over its last three and if CEH can rush at his 4.8 ypc average, he’d only need 13 carries to hit 62 yards, which is a number that he hit in each of his four games before the injury.
With some rested legs, we could see a big game out of Edwards-Helaire in a massive AFC West showdown. Mahomes and the passing game are not locked in, so a few extra carries to the Kansas City backfield wouldn’t hurt either.
Edwards-Helaire’s rushing total is on the rise but FanDuel still has a 56.5 (-114) while other books are already up to 62.5 and leaning to the Over. We’d take this up to 62.5 yards.
PICK: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Fringe fliers
What would a SNF game be without a few long-shot fringe touchdown plays?
On the Kansas City side, there aren’t a ton of fringe options, but one receiver saw his role increase in Week 11 and looks to be operating as the team’s No. 2 WR.
Byron Pringle’s TD price is +450 at bet365 and +350 or worse at other major books. Pringle ran a route on 66 percent of Mahomes’ passes in Week 11, which was plenty more than Mecole Hardman’s 17.7 percent. Hardman’s TD price is also worse than Pringle’s at +333. Pringle is playing 60 percent of the snaps over the team’s last two games, compared to Hardman’s 26 percent, and taking him on a TD flier at +450 is our best Chiefs flier.
Turning things over to the Broncos, tight end Albert Okwuegbunam has carved out a minimal role in the passing game and was averaging 3.33/45/0 in three straight weeks before the bye. He also wasn’t needed much last week, as the Broncos played with the lead for the majority of the game versus the Chargers. In the Broncos' last four games he’s totaled 49%, 81%, 41%, and 45% of offensive snaps.
Kansas City allows the sixth-most production to opposing tight ends and at +750, it offers one of the better long-shot TD prices on the board. His 0.21 targets per route run is the same as No. 1 Noah Fant.
PICK: Byron Pringle anytime TD (+450 at bet365 at 0.5 units) and Albert Okwuegbunam anytime TD (+750 at DraftKings at 0.5 units)
