The Denver Broncos supposedly will start an actual quarterback in this week’s game, but that doesn’t mean things will be any easier when they travel to Kansas City to battle the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Drew Lock is expected to return under center for the Broncos, but Denver is still getting two touchdowns from NFL oddsmakers. The Chiefs have won six in a row, which includes a 43-16 beatdown of the Broncos back in Week 7. Can K.C. do it again and cover the big number?
We break down the NFL odds with our free Broncos vs. Chiefs picks and predictions for Sunday, November 6, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
Weather
Arrowhead Stadium will be fairly cold and clear Sunday night, with temperatures around 37 degrees, slight wind (6 mph) and no chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Broncos: Phillip Lindsay RB (Probable), Demar Dotson T (Probable), Jerry Jeudy WR (Probable), Mark Barron LB (Questionable), Jake Butt TE (Out), Jeff Driskel QB (Out), P.J. Locke (Probable), Trey Marshall S (Out), Malik Reed LB (Probable).
Chiefs: Bashaud Breeland CB (Probable), Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB (Questionable), Bopete Keyes CB (Questionable), Dorian O'Daniel LB (Out), Byron Pringle WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Chiefs have been the side to bet in this matchup, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Broncos. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
It would be unfair to blame Kendall Hinton for any of the Broncos' problems last week, we can look right at Lock with any QB issues. Lock has taken a step back in his first full year as the Broncos’ starter. He's completing just 55.6 percent of his passes and has more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (7). On top of that, his quarterback rating (67.5) and QBR (41.1) are only ahead of the Jets’ Sam Darnold.
The Broncos will rely on their run game in this one, giving the Chiefs a healthy diet of Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon, but that will be a hard strategy to stick to in a game where they will likely be trailing from the get-go.
To make matters worse, Denver hasn’t been as strong on the defensive side of the ball this year (losing Von Miller did not help). The Broncos have been gouged by the run, and while they have some strong numbers against the pass, they've struggled against better quarterbacks, and Patrick Mahomes is the best of the best.
Really, what more can we say about the Chiefs’ offense that hasn’t been said already. They’re special. Mahomes looks on his way to another MVP and has a gluttony of weapons at his disposal. Tyreek Hill went off last week, Travis Kelce is one of the leaders in receiving yards and they now have a backfield duo of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell.
If there is one thing to note, it's that the Chiefs have allowed a few too many fourth-quarter points the last few weeks, which has resulted in that 0-3 ATS mark.
Now, some people say that consistently laying points with a team like the Chiefs is a square move. But welcome to betting the new NFL. Despite going 0-3 ATS in the last three weeks, the Chiefs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games (including playoffs) and 29-17-2 ATS (63 percent) since Mahomes took over the starting gig in K.C. A backdoor cover is the fear here, but it’s not as scary as backing the Broncos at this point in time. Lay the points.
PREDICTION: Chiefs -14 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total might be the more intriguing number for this game when all is said and done. This AFC West showdown hit the boards at 48.5 and has quickly bet all the way up to 52, but that number may now be high enough for us to attack the Under.
Will Denver improve on offense this week? Probably. But that isn’t saying much. Even before last week’s game, the Broncos still averaged only 20.6 points per contest and they have not fared well against Kansas City recently, scoring just 25 total points in their last three games against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a chance to get out to a big lead and then milk the clock late against a Broncos run defense that ranks 27th in the league, giving up 131.3 yards per game. Plus, the Under is 11-3-1 in Broncos’ last 15 divisional games.
PREDICTION: Under 52 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Mahomes is taking his game to another level. The former (and probably again) MVP has thrown for 1,598 yards with 14 touchdowns and one pick over the last four games. And while Hill was the man with the big game last week, you can’t forget about Kelce. Mahomes has targeted the Chiefs' star tight end 42 times over that four-game stretch, with Kelce hauling in 34 of those targets for 477 yards.
This number is a little lower than you might expect because Denver plays the tight end fairly well and held Kelce to 31 yards in the last meeting. But that game was a little weird with the snow and the defensive and special teams touchdowns. Last season, Kelce had 17 receptions for 186 yards in two games against the Broncos. Until Mahomes, Kelce and Co. cool off, take the Over on his yards.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Yards (-120)
Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Card
- Chiefs -14 (-110)
- Under 52 (-110)
- Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Yards (-120)
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