The Carolina Panthers had to take a couple of days off from football operations ahead of their Week 14 game against the visiting Denver Broncos due to COVID. In all, the Panthers sent 10 players to the COVID list and shut down their practice facility on Monday and Tuesday.
With matching 4-8 records on the year, both teams don’t have much to play for with only four games left.
This game was off the books for the majority of the week, but the Panthers opened as the favorites (-3) (45.5 O/U) despite the possible absence of some key skilled players.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Broncos vs Panthers for Sunday, December 13 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers Betting Preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the low 70s on Sunday with 5 mph winds and partially cloudy skies. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Broncos: Graham Glasgow G (Out), Mark Barron LB (Out), A.J. Bouye CB (Out).
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Out), D.J. Moore WR (Out), Dennis Daley G (Out), Marquis Haynes DE (Out), Stephen Weatherly DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 4-0 in the Broncos’ last four games. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Panthers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Panthers had taken three of their last four games ATS before hitting their Week 13 bye as the team continued to play well without RB Christian McCaffrey. The star running back has missed all but three games this year and is doubtful again this week. Head coach Matt Rhule has gone 4-5 SU without CMC this year including 6-3 ATS. It's the availability of two other Carolina skilled players that has us worried about backing the Cats.
Receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are averaging 124 receiving yards combined per game this year, which is 50 percent of the team's total receiving yards per game. Both receivers have been put on the COVID reserve list (Editor's Note: Samuel has since been activated).
We’re buying the Panthers at -3 with the expectations that both receivers will be on the field Sunday.
The Broncos have not been better than three-point underdogs since November 1 and have yet to close as a favorite this year. They rank dead-last in DVOA offense (32nd in pass and 27th in rushing), per Football Outsiders and score the second-fewest points per game at 18.
Denver has played decent defense this year (No. 10 DVOA defense) but will be without starting CB A.J. Bouye (suspended) who is their second-highest rated CB per PFF.
PREDICTION: Carolina -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
With the league’s worst offense, the Broncos have unsurprisingly hit the Under in four straight games. Drew Lock’s offense (minus one week) has scored just five TDs since Week 10 and leads the league in giveaways per game at 2.3. Even when they get inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, the Broncos are scoring TDs at 50 percent.
The Panthers aren’t sporting a shut-down defense by any means, but this is a unit that has played the league’s sixth-most difficult schedule and has exceeded expectations this year.
Carolina has been afflicted by a few of the same problems as the Denver offense, specifically scoring in the red zone. Teddy Bridgewater's offense is in the bottom 10 in converting TDs in the red zone and is averaging the second-most field goals per game on the year. Three points in the RZ is a death sentence for Overs.
PREDICTION: Under 45.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The Panthers will be without McCaffrey this week as well as WR D.J. Moore. RB Mike Davis will have the backfield all to himself again in Week 14 in a game that features the Panthers as 3.5-point favorites.
In the six games that Davis has started that the Panthers weren’t more than three-point underdogs, the running back has averaged over 16 carries per game. He was held to under 15 carries just once in those six matches and is coming off back-to-back games where he handled 34 carries.
The Broncos own the No. 10 defense but have struggled against the run with the 22nd-ranked rush defense. Opposing teams have run often when facing the Broncos, as their 28.8 rushes against per game is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Missing their No. 2 WR, Carolina could find solace on the ground as they could be playing with the lead against a Denver offense that is arguably the worst in the league.
PREDICTION: Mike Davis Over 14.4 rushing attempts (-115)
Broncos vs Panthers Betting Card
- Carolina -3 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
- Mike Davis Over 14.4 rushing attempts (-115)
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