The Baltimore Ravens saw their four-game win streak snapped in a last-second road defeat and now head home to face a Denver Broncos squad that’s lost seven of their last eight.
Denver was embarrassed by the 4-8 Panthers in a 23-10 road loss last week. Under first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett and new quarterback Russell Wilson, the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the league at converting on third down, and that issue continued last weekend.
Below we offer our best free NFL picks and predictions for the Broncos vs. Ravens in Week 13.
Broncos vs Ravens best odds
Broncos vs Ravens picks and predictions
The Ravens have surrendered 108 points in the fourth quarter this year, the most in the NFL. That problem aside, Baltimore’s defense has been impressive. Across the Ravens’ previous four games, they rank third in the NFL in points allowed (14.5) and yards surrendered (283.3).
That bodes well for the Ravens’ home tilt with Denver, whose offense under Russell Wilson has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2022 season.
The Broncos rank dead-last in points per game (14.3) and red-zone scoring percentage (37.5%), and they’re 24th in yards per game (319.1).
Last week, Denver faced a lowly but feisty Panthers squad and went 4-for-14 on third down, recorded just 246 total yards, and turned the ball over twice. Carolina racked up 349 total yards, with 164 from Sam Darnold and 185 from the rushing attack, including 113 from D’Onta Foreman.
Wilson, on the other hand, went 19-of-35 passing for 142 yards and was sacked three times. He also threw for one touchdown on a 1-yard pass with 3:19 left in the game — the only Broncos touchdown of the day.
The Ravens’ biggest weakness on defense is against the pass, in which they rank 27th in the league in yards surrendered, but Baltimore is also tied for second in the NFL in takeaways per game.
Expect a much more focused defensive effort at home against a weak Broncos offense, while the Ravens will lean on their run game as they confront the third-best pass defense in the league (184.7 yards per game).
My best bet: Ravens moneyline/Under 39.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
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Broncos vs Ravens spread analysis
The Ravens opened as 7- to 7.5-point home favorites at most sportsbooks, but the line has moved two points in Baltimore’s favor over the week.
The Ravens are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 home games versus teams with a losing road record but 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Denver’s past three losses have come by an average margin of 8.6 points, and the team ranks 25th in the league in average scoring margin (-3.4).
Baltimore is seventh in the NFL, with a +4.4 scoring margin, and the Ravens’ three most recent victories (against Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Carolina) were by an average margin of 9.6.
Against the Broncos, the Ravens have won the last two, but Jackson was only the starter in the most recent victory — a 23-7 decision.
Denver is also 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in Baltimore and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.
Broncos vs Ravens Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup opened between 38.5 and 41.5 and has settled at 39.5 by the end of the week.
Both of these teams have seen the Under hit a majority of the season, with the total going Over just four times in 11 games for Baltimore and just once in 11 matchups for Denver in 2022.
As the home team, Baltimore has seen the Over go 1-4 at M&T Bank Stadium, while the Under is 4-1 in Denver’s away games in 2022.
The Ravens rank ninth in the league in points per outing (25) and have finished with 27 points in three of the last four games, while Denver has scored no more than 16 points in each of its last three.
Both of these defenses rank in the Top 12 in points allowed, with the Broncos boasting the fourth-best scoring defense (17.6 points) and Baltimore owning the 12th-best (20.6).
The Under is 4-0 in Denver’s last four road games and 6-0 in Denver’s last six road games versus teams with a winning home record, while the Under has hit in all four of Baltimore’s last four home games and is 6-2 in the Ravens’ last eight games overall.
Broncos vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Baltimore. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Ravens.
Broncos vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, December 4, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -7.5, 39.5 |
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