Browns vs Falcons Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Cleveland Squeaks Out Win in Atlanta

While Deshaun Watson serves his 11-game suspension, the Cleveland Browns (2-1) are looking to win enough games to put them in a prime position to hit the ground running once he returns. That included a 29-17 win over the Steelers last Thursday, a game that was much closer than the final score entails given Cleveland's defensive touchdown as time expired.

This week it will hit the road to face the Atlanta Falcons (1-2), fresh off their first win of the season: a 27-23 road win against Seattle — a task that is never easy. Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be the engine of the offense, accumulating rushing 141 yards on just 17 attempts (8.3 YPC) which included a nice 17-yard score in the second quarter.

Can Atlanta keep the ball rolling in its return home to Mercedes-Benz Stadium or will Cleveland add another win to its record with Jacoby Brissett under center? Find out in our NFL betting picks and predictions for Browns vs. Falcons.

Browns vs Falcons best odds

Browns vs Falcons picks and predictions

In lieu of Deshaun Watson's suspension and the implication that Jacoby Brissett would be the Browns' starting quarterback for their first 11 games, expectations were most certainly managed when it came to Cleveland's offense. But through three games, Brissett and company have managed to turn some heads.

The Browns average a blistering 28.3 points per game, good for sixth in the league. They rank an even better third in offensive DVOA, which includes rankings of sixth in pass DVOA and second in rush DVOA. All-pro running back Nick Chubb leads the league in rush yards, averaging 113.7 yards per game, and is just one of three backs to average 100+ yards.

It's fitting that one of the other two backs to meet that mark is Falcons' RB Cordarrelle Patterson (100.7 yards per game), who has served as the Falcons' offensive engine dating back to last year. And speaking of that offense, despite their 1-2 record, the Falcons rank a surprising ninth in points per game at 26.7.

But for as good as both offenses have been, it's on the other side of the ball that these teams are seeing deficiencies thus far. The Falcons rank 27th in defensive DVOA and the Browns are not much better at 23rd. In fact, it could be argued that Cleveland's struggles are particularly worrisome given the plethora of talent they have on that side of the ball.

All-Pro Myles Garrett leads the trenches for that defense with two-time Pro-Bowler Denzel Ward anchoring the secondary. The Browns also had cornerback Greg Newsome II (68.1 PFF grade in 2021) and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (76.5) emerge as some of the best rookies at their positions, while three-time Pro-Bowl edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and the often underrated safety John Johnson III were added to round out the unit.

Yet despite that talent, Cleveland is allowing a problematic 24 points per game, a trend that could rear its ugly head if the offense were to ever have a suboptimal outing. But if the point is speaking to the amount of talent each team has, Cleveland has a clear edge there.

That's not to say the Falcons are without it. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and the aforementioned Cordarrelle Patterson are unique and outstanding talents in their own right. On defense, A.J. Terrell made second-team All-Pro as a rookie and eight-year defensive lineman Grady Jarrett and third-year linebacker Mykal Walker are severely underappreciated.

But when stacking up the two teams, the Browns have a very tangible talent edge that makes the very small spread too juicy to pass up on.

My best bet: Browns -1 (-110 at BetMGM)

Browns vs Falcons spread analysis

On top of the talent disparity, there is also a massive coaching one as well. Second-year Falcons coach Arthur Smith hasn't shown much yet in his short time as a head honcho, playing to an 8-12 record between this year and last. He has displayed a level of stubbornness inside and outside of the game that mimics his mentor Mike Vrabel.

Opposite of him on Sunday is Kevin Stefanski, who is 21-15 in his three years as a head coach now. Stefanski is often cited as one of the league's best minds when it comes to constructing a rushing offense, and the results thus far have backed that up given the production Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (and even D'Ernest Jonson) have accumulated during their time with him.

And while winning on the road in the NFL is never an easy task, the task is certainly much more achievable when you enter a game with better talent on both sides of the ball as well as on the sidelines.

Browns vs Falcons Over/Under analysis

Given the high praise that has been levied thus far for the offensive talent on both teams and the noted shortcomings of both defenses, a look at the Over seems intuitively correct at first glance.

However, with a total reaching 48 at some books, it may be best to look the other way.

Looking at the bigger picture, you have two very run-centric head coaches at the helm with two (likely) overperforming offenses that are being piloted by borderline starting quarterbacks at best going against underperforming defenses up to this point. This is seemingly a perfect time to zag while everyone else expects this to be one of the higher-scoring affairs of Week 4.

Expect both offenses to chew up a lot of clock on the ground but for drives to ultimately stall out.

Browns vs Falcons betting trend to know

Jacoby Brissett has a 19:7 TD:INT ratio in road games compared to a 21:11 ratio in home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Falcons.

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