NFL betting for the Week 15 Sunday nighter will feature a game that was flexed into the spot—featuring the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants.
Yes. The NFL purposefully moved the Browns and Giants into a primetime game. NFL in 2020 sure is wacky.
What's even wackier is that both teams are in the thick of playoff races! The Browns are holding on to a wild card spot, despite losing perhaps the most exciting game of the season last week, while the banged-up Giants are still in the hunt for the NFC East division title....somehow.
NFL odds opened with the Browns as three-point chalk, but that line has puffed up to -6.5, with the total dropping from 46 down to 44 points.
Here are our best NFL free picks and predictions for the Cleveland Browns vs. New York Giants on Sunday, December 20, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET.
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a brisk night at MetLife Stadium. A high of 34 degrees is expected, with zero chance of precipitation. Wind should be minimal. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Mack Wilson LB (Out), Wyatt Teller G (Out), Andrew Sendejo S (Out), Greedy Williams CB (Out), Ronnie Harrison S (Out).
Giants: James Bradberry CB (Out), Daniel Jones QB (Out), Darnay Holmes CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 9-2 in Cleveland's last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Giants.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
OK everybody, raise your hands if you truly expected the Browns to lose a 47-42 shootout to the Ravens last week. Nobody? Bueller? Thought so.
The Browns came up just short last week in what was arguably the game of the season, but there was a significant positive Cleveland can take away from that game: quarterback Baker Mayfield might have finally silenced his doubters. Mayfield has thrown for 677 yards and six touchdowns over his last two games, most recently putting on a masterful fourth-quarter performance against Baltimore with two passing touchdowns and a rushing score as he led Cleveland back from a 14-point deficit to take the lead late.
Unfortunately, Cleveland couldn't win, despite putting up 42 points and almost 500 yards of total offense, because the defense was utterly horrendous. With a depleted secondary that was without star CB Denzel Ward and starting safety Ronnie Harrison, Cleveland routinely failed to cover Baltimore's top passing targets in clutch situations and the unit as a whole could not contain Lamar Jackson, as the Ravens gouged the Browns for 231 rushing yards and FIVE RUSHING TDs.
The good news for Cleveland is that they are facing a Giants team that might not punish Cleveland's defensive deficiencies. New York was pummeled 26-7 last week by the Cardinals, with a wounded Daniel Jones proving to be totally ineffective, as the G-Men mustered just 159 total yards of offense. The score could have been much worse as well, as Arizona had five red-zone trips, but only found paydirt on two of them. If the Giants keep giving up RZ trips to the Browns, who are fourth in the NFL in converting those trips into touchdowns, this game could get out of hand quickly.
There's some concern that falling short in such a dramatic game, coupled with the Giants' desperation to stay in the NFC East title hunt, could mean a letdown spot for Cleveland. But the COVID-19 equalizer reared its head on Thursday, as top CB James Bradberry tested positive and will be out Sunday, along with offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
Why is Garrett relevant? Well, he's the offensive play-caller for the Giants, so in his absence, the play-caller on Sunday night will be – wait for it – Freddie Kitchens.
Freddie Kitchens is calling the plays against the Browns on Sunday Night Football. I can't make this up...and now I can't bet against the Browns.
PREDICTION: Cleveland -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this game opened at 46 but sits at 44 as of Friday morning. This is the lowest total Cleveland has seen all season and it's due to the Giants' uncertainty at quarterback and their defense giving up just 18 points per game over their last four contests.
But we're looking at New York's 18th-ranked DVOA pass defense, per Football Outsiders, that will be without its top cornerback, and a running defense that just gave up 159 yards to Arizona, and wondering how they will stop the red-hot Browns. Cleveland has back-to-back 40-point/450+ yard efforts and a defense that has given up at least 20 points in every game at a 32.8 ppg average (minus the severe weather-affected games in Weeks 8, 10 and 11).
I'm expecting the Browns to beat up these beaten-down Giants and do the heavy lifting towards this total, with Cleveland's defense coughing up a few points to get us over the edge. The Over has hit in each of Cleveland's last four games as a road favorite—I think Sunday night makes it five in a row.
PREDICTION: Over 44 (-110)
Team Total Pick
Staying in line with the above predictions, I'm expecting the Browns to score points on the reeling Giants.
Whether it's Baker torching New York through the air, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt churning yards on the ground, or Freddie Kitchens donating points to Cleveland with what is sure to be some head-scratching #YOLO play calls, I think the Browns should top their team total.
PREDICTION: Cleveland team total Over 24.5 (-108)
Browns vs Giants Betting Card
- Cleveland -6.5 (-110)
- Over 44 (-110)
- Cleveland team total Over 24.5 (-108)
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