The Cleveland Browns finally get to play a game outside dreary Ohio, as they travel to Jacksonville in Week 12 to take on the Jaguars, who are losers of nine straight.
The 7-3 Browns now sit in second place in the AFC North while the Jags, and their poor QB play from rookie Jake Luton, sit in the AFC South basement.
Cleveland opened as 6.5-point favorites but that number has moved to -7 on some books. The total moved quickly to 49 after opening at 46.5 but can be found at 48.5 across multiple books.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs. Jaguars on November 29 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
Weather
It will be an overcast day (four percent P.O.P) in Jacksonville on Sunday but with temperatures expected in the low-70s with little (2 mph) wind. Football conditions should be perfect for late November. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Denzel Ward CB (Out), Myles Garrett DE (Out), Ronnie Harrison DB (Probable), Jack Conklin T (Questionable), Jovante Moffatt S (Probable), Sheldrick Redwine S (Out), Andrew Sendejo S (Questionable), Wyatt Teller G (Questionable), JC Tretter C (Questionable), Greedy Williams CB (Out), Jedrick Wills Jr. T (Probable).
Jaguars: Gardner Minshew QB (Questionable), Josh Allen DE (Out), D.J. Hayden CB (Out), Laviska Shenault Jr. WR (Questionable), Dakota Allen LB (Questionable), DJ Chark WR (Out), Chris Conley WR (Out), Tyler Eifert TE (Probable), Abry Jones DT (Questionable), Sidney Jones DB (Doubtful), James O'Shaughnessy TE (Probable), Jarrod Wilson S (Probable), Andrew Norwell OL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Jaguars have lost both the first half – and the game – in six straight contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Jaguars.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Have the Jaguars hit rock bottom after last week’s loss to the Steelers? Current QB Jake Luton tossed four picks in Week 11 and will likely be riding the pine if Gardner Minshew can come back. Either way, the Browns defense should eat up this one-dimensional Jacksonville offense as Cleveland has allowed just 30 points over its last three games.
Cleveland has played two Top-15 offenses over that stretch, Las Vegas and Houston, allowing just 4.6 yards per play in those games (although it must be noted that those defensive efforts were helped by extremely bad weather). The Jacksonville offense has struggled with Luton, averaging the fourth-worst yards per play mark (4.7) since Week 9.
Making things even worse for the Jags, they will likely have to face one of the league’s best rushing attacks without DE Josh Allen, who is their highest-rated D-lineman per Pro Football Focus.
There is a reason Jacksonville has been a TD-or-more underdog in five straight games, so we want this number early—we won’t have much interest if the spread moves past the seven.
PREDICTION: Cleveland -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
We were hyping the Cleveland Over last week and fell short. Two turnovers inside the five-yard line in the first quarter set the tone, but for a third straight weekweather was a huge factor in the offensive output.
Running back Nick Chubb has run for 240 yards is two games since returning from injury. This is Chubb’s offense right now and the running back is now gaining 6.1 yards per carry, which is the best mark by any RB in the league.
The Jaguars may have the worst DVOA pass defense in the league, but they are also conceding 1.6 rushing TDs per game at home this year. If Chubb, and the equally-dangerous Kareem Hunt, can move the sticks, QB Baker Mayfield can finally work the play-action in optimal playing conditions.
The Browns have hit the Under in three straight weeks but all three of those games had a combination of insane winds, rain and cold weather. Even still they have a Bottom-15 defense and pace the league with 37 points allowed per game on the road.
Mayfield and the Browns were 5-2 O/U on the season before those three weather-affected games. We’re dancing on the Over again this week.
PREDICTION: Over 48.5 (-110)
Double Result Prop Pick
The Browns have been a 6.5-point-or-more favorite just one other time this year. This is a weak defense that will be without superstar pass rusher Myles Garrett and star CB Denzel Ward and could be missing starting safety Ronnie Harrison. Even against the Jaguars, seven points with a mediocre defense can be a scary thing, even though we wouldn’t consider Jacksonville at +7 or +7.5.
Taking the Browns in the double result (to win the first half and win the game) is a way to double down on our Cleveland expectations but hedge slightly on the lofty spread.
In their seven wins this year, the Browns are 6-1 on winning the first half and the game. Jacksonville has also allowed their opponents to hit the double result in six straight games.
PREDICTION: Double result: Cleveland Browns – Cleveland Browns (-110)
Browns vs Jaguars Betting Card
- Cleveland -6.5 (-110)
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Double result: Cleveland – Cleveland (-110)
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