The presents have all been opened and now it’s time for the adults to have some fun. The NFL Christmas Day schedule kicks off with the Cleveland Browns traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers who sit as 7.5-point home favorites.
Can the Browns get Baker Mayfield under center and regroup after health and safety protocols wreaked havoc on them last week? Can Aaron Rodgers further build his case for the league’s MVP?
Find out in our free player prop picks for Browns vs. Packers.
Browns vs Packers prop picks
- Aaron Jones Over 50.5 rushing yards
- Nick Chubb Over 84.5 rushing yards
- Austin Hooper Over 25.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Browns vs Packers props
The rolling Jones
After getting out-touched in his first two games back from injury, Aaron Jones took the lion’s share of the touches last week versus the Ravens. Jones finished with 13 carries for 58 yards compared to AJ Dillon’s seven carries for 22 yards. Jones played 39 snaps (63%) to Dillon’s 23 (37%) and could be healthy enough to take back his top role.
If Jones is going to get his 12-15 rushes against a Cleveland defense that allows 4.1 yards per carry, 60 yards should be Jones’ floor. Cleveland has faced a steady diet of average running backs and offenses of late. The last good running team the Browns saw was the Patriots, which was five games ago, and New England ran for 184 yards.
With Kevin Stefanski calling Myles Garrett a true game-time decision and the Cleveland offense uncertain, Jones looks like the better play of the two backs in a game that Green Bay is a 7.5-point home favorite in. Jones’ rushing total opened at 57.5 yards last week so getting it at 50.5 yards this week after last week's usage is great news for us.
PICK: Aaron Jones Over 50.5 rushing yards (-105 at bet365)
Chubb checker
Kareem Hunt has been ruled out for this Week 16 matchup, which means Nick Chubb will get the majority of the snaps behind a revolving door offensive line. Jedrick Wills, the team’s starting left tackle, will draw back into the lineup but just as things started to look good, the team has now announced that starting center, J.C. Tretter, has been put on the COVID list and he’s in doubt of missing Saturday’s game.
All these moving pieces are detrimental to a Cleveland offense that has averaged 262 yards per game over its last three contests, which is the fourth-worst in the league. The Jets have scored more points per game this month than the Browns. With the uncertainty of Baker Mayfield and his receivers, Chubb stands as the one offensive piece with the least amount of variables.
Since coming back from injury, Chubb has averaged just 3.75 yards per carry over two games but those were against two Top-10 EPA rush defenses in the Ravens and Raiders. Saturday, he’ll face Green Bay's front seven that ranks 30th in rush success rate.
The Packers are allowing a healthy 5.0 ypc over their last three games and have surrendered 348 yards on the ground over that stretch. Chubb's rushing yards total of 84.5 yards is a little high, especially for a team that is 7.5-point road underdogs, but this is a good matchup for him. The Browns are missing pieces on the O-line but guard Joel Bitonio played well filling in at left tackle and Wyatt Teller is the No. 4 grade guard. The Browns’ defense has kept things close over the last four games, which should help keep Chubb involved. He had 91 rushing yards with a worse offensive line last week as an underdog and Nick Mullens under center.
PICK: Nick Chubb Over 84.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Hooper dreams
Cleveland tight end Austin Hooper was activated off the COVID list on Wednesday and will take over the No. 1 TE spot from David Njoku this Saturday. Before missing one game on the COVID list, Hooper was coming off a five-catch performance and had 13 catches over four games from Weeks 10 to 14.
Hooper hasn’t been racking up yards, with just 4.3 air yards per reception, but his 21 targets over his last four games are second on the team. Getting Baker Mayfield under center will only help his production, although Case Keenum isn’t a huge downgrade as Hooper had 42 yards receiving in Keenum’s start in Week 7.
In his Week 14 game versus the Ravens, Hooper’s yardage total opened at 31.5 yards, which was a season-high and a total he fell one yard short of despite catching five balls. This week, facing a Green Bay defense that allows 53.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends, Hooper’s total is sitting at a more reasonable 25.5 yards, as he's had at least 25 yards in five of his last seven games.
Jarvis Landry coming back will cut into Hooper’s target share but considering he played 100 percent of the snaps in his last game, it’s safe to assume Hooper will be involved in a game that has one of the higher totals Cleveland has seen since early November.
PICK: Austin Hooper Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
