The Baltimore Ravens can clinch the divisional title as they welcome the Cleveland Browns to M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday, January 5.
Riding into the final week on the back of a three-game winning streak, the Ravens control their own destiny. My Browns vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks have Baltimore sealing that AFC North title, but the Browns covering in a low-scoring affair.
Browns vs Ravens predictions
Early spread lean
Browns +17.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
These two teams come into this final regular season in very different shape. The Baltimore Ravens have won three on the spin and have overtaken the Steelers at the summit of the division. The bookies believe that they’re almost certain to win the division and with a 17.5-point spread, they’re the biggest favorites of this final week.
Over the past three weeks, they’ve bounced back from the loss to the Eagles with three big-time performances. They’ve put up 30+ points in each of those three contests, beating the Giants, Steelers and Texans. The offense is really firing and Lamar Jackson has drawn himself closer to Josh Allen in the NFL MVP odds.
While the Ravens are ascending, we’re seeing the Cleveland Browns fall apart. They’ve long been out of playoff contention, but over recent weeks we’ve seen the team look borderline disinterested at times.
The quarterback situation has continued to be an issue. Deshaun Watson was frankly washed pre-injury, Jameis Winston is capable of brilliance but careless, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson just isn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback. Over the past three weeks, we’ve seen the team score just 16 points.
This might come as a shock, but despite the Browns struggles, I'm taking them and the points on Saturday. The Browns opened as 14.5-point underdogs, and that’s increased to no less than 17.5. It wouldn’t be a shock if this number continued to grow as we get closer to kickoff on Saturday.
As bad as the Browns are, that is a huge spread to be betting against, especially when there are still some difference-makers on defense. The fact this game is taking place in Week 18 might save the Browns blushes, with them not getting heavily beaten on by their divisional rivals.
The Ravens will win, there’s no doubt about that, but we know the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up. Once the Ravens are a couple of scores up, why would they risk Lamar Jackson and their best playmakers? It’s hard to see the motivation for the Ravens to finish the game with the players who started it. Expect to see plenty of rushing and some backups on the field late.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 42 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The total has remained steady since opening, and I'm taking the Under here. The reasons behind that have been touched on above, but firstly we have the Browns’ offense.
Winston was emergency QB on Sunday and it’s unlikely he’s going to be healthy enough to start, meaning we’ll once again see DTR under center. His past two starts haven’t seen a single touchdown pass, while he has thrown three interceptions and under 200 yards in each game. The offense doesn’t function with him and they likely won’t be hitting double-digits.
I’m expecting the Ravens to meet a hard defense who’ll be looking to end the season right. When they get the lead, we’re going to see a lot of clock management and a lot of the ground game in order to get the team over the line and into the playoffs without major injury, especially to their franchise QB.
With the Ravens potentially even brining in backups and eating that clock, we’re going to see the Under on total points.
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Browns vs Ravens live odds
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