NFL betting in Week 5 kicks off with a Windy City war on Thursday Night Football when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blow into town to face the Chicago Bears.
While both teams sit 3-1 SU in the standings, the Bucs are sizable road favorites giving six points to the host Bears. Tampa Bay has won three straight games since dropping its season opener while Chicago got its first taste of defeat in a loss to Indianapolis on Sunday.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Bears on October 8.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Thursday night is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-50s with winds blowing at 7 mph in Chicago. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin WR (Out), LeSean McCoy RB (Out), O.J. Howard TE (Out), Justin Watson WR (Out)).
Bears: Deon Bush S (Out), Sherrick McManis S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bears are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Bears.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Buccaneers opened as 6-point favorites but that spread dropped to -5.5 Monday morning. Tampa Bay has bounced back from a poor showing against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1 with three straight wins, however, those victories weren’t against the stiffest of competition and they didn’t come easy.
The Bucs needed a late touchdown run to cover against Carolina in Week 2, then bullied the Broncos and their backup QBs in Week 3, before a remarkable comeback against the Chargers this past weekend, rallying from 24-7 down to win 38-31 as 7.5-point closing faves.
The short week doesn’t do Tampa Bay any favors, with numerous skill players licking wounds heading into Week 5. The receiving corps was already without Chris Godwin (doubtful) and Mike Evans is banged up, but now tight end O.J. Howard is done for the season (Achilles). Running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy are also question marks for Thursday.
Chicago’s defense remains the guts of the franchise, ranked eighth in yards allowed and seventh in defensive points at 20.3 per game. The Bears have been especially strong against the pass, giving up just 6.2 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and a total of three passing touchdowns through four games.
If you missed Chicago +6, it may come back around by Thursday – pending the Bucs’ injury reports. Some sportsbooks slimmed to Tampa Bay -5 but went back to -5.5, which is where most shops sit as of Monday afternoon. This number seems too high considering the poor effort against the Colts fell into a classic letdown spot after that thrilling Week 3 comeback against the Atlanta Falcons.
PREDICTION: Chicago +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Bears offense is still trying to gain traction with Nick Foles at quarterback. Foles, who Chicago acquired in the offseason from Jacksonville, was beat out as the Week 1 starter in camp and didn’t get to see game action until midway through Week 3. That move to Foles almost pushed the restart button on this offense, in terms of cohesion and chemistry.
Regardless of the game of musical chairs at QB, Matt Nagy’s playbook is missing its edge. This used to be a dynamic offense with plenty of curveballs but through one-and-a-half games, the jury is still out on Foles. He looked like he was gaining traction at the end of the Sunday’s loss to the Colts, but those yards came in garbage time and required some slick receiving from Allen Robinson II.
Tampa Bay’s defense relies on chaos, picking up 14 sacks so far this season. It has given up some surprising passing totals to so-so QBs, with big days from Teddy Bridgewater and Chargers rookie Justin Herbert. However, with the lifelessness offense from Chicago and the Bucs skill positions banged up, there’s a reason this total is hovering around 44.5 points – currently the lowest Over/Under on the Week 5 odds board.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
First quarter pick
Tampa Bay surrendered 14 points in the first quarter to Los Angeles on Sunday, the first time an opponent had cracked the scoreboard in the opening frame against the Bucs defense. This stop unit had pitched shutouts in the first 15 minutes of its opening three games, including its Week 1 loss to New Orleans.
Chicago’s first-quarter offense is historically bad among derivative bettors. The Bears capped the 2019 season with an average of just 2.3 points in the first frame and so far in 2020, Chicago has scored three or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes in three of its four games, including a goose in the first quarter versus the Colts.
In a battle of two solid stop units, we see another slow start for the Bears on Thursday night.
PREDICTION: Chicago first quarter Under 0.5 points (+116)
Buccaneers vs Bears betting card
- Chicago +5.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Chicago first quarter Under 0.5 points (+116)
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