The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to State Farm Stadium on Christmas night to take on Trace McSorley and the Arizona Cardinals as 7.5-point road favorites. With Colt McCoy being ruled out, the Bucs have moved from -6.5 to -7.5.
Despite the inexperienced under center for the home side, this game is projected to be a very fast-paced game that could give prop bettors some value in certain markets.
Here are my NFL prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Buccaneers and Cardinals.
Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full SNF betting preview, as well as Robert Criscola's Tom Brady spotlight props.
Buccaneers vs Cardinals props
- White Under 12.5 rushing attempts (-110)
- Evans Over 49.5 receiving yards (-112)
- McSorely Over 190.5 passing yards (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs Cardinals SNF props
Losing shares
The Rachaad White markets have hit a peak — even in a good matchup as a 7.5-point favorite. Leonard Fournette is back to full health and took 43 of the snaps last week compared to White’s 29. Lenny also gained six more yards on one less carry than the rookie, who is averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt over his last three games.
Combined with the Buccaneers passing the ball at 70% over their last three contests and being unable to run all season, I’m steering away from White’s rushing markets.
White’s carry total sits at 12.5, which is a number I’m comfortable fading as the rookie loses snaps. Meanwhile, Fournette is gaining 4.42 yards per carry since coming back from injury.
Tampa is just running the ball just 22.1 times per game on the season (the lowest rate in football), and although it might be close, the chances of this going way over are so low with the teams’ play-calling tendencies.
Rachaad White Prop: Under 12.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Heading north
Mike Evans looked like a different receiver last week against the Bengals as he finished with nine catches and topped 60 yards for the first time in six games.
His receiving total is 49.5 yards, which is nine yards shorter than it was last week. A lot of that has to do with the potential game script of being a 7.5-point favorite. However, we’ve seen this team struggle to build on leads in 2022.
Tampa has been a 7-point favorite or more three times this year and has failed to cover in every match. The passing game can't afford to take a nap on Christmas night.
Evans also got a big chunk of the team's scripted plays early last week, seeing five targets over the team’s first two drives that he turned into 47 yards. The Pro Bowl wideout had another 33 yards wiped out due to a penalty as well.
An indoor environment and a Bottom-10 defense are also pushing the needle here. THE BLITZ is projecting 68.31 yards, and I’d play this to 57.5 as this is a number that will keep increasing.
Mike Evans Prop: Over 49.5 receiving yards (-112)
Amazing Trace
There is nothing sexy about taking a quarterback making his first NFL start, but Trace McSorley’s passing total of 190.5 yards is quite low and has already seen some money on the Over after opening at 188.5.
McSorley came in relief versus a very good Denver defense last week and completed under 50% of his passes, and threw two picks. Recreational bettors will be quick to bet his Under, but we’re handicapping a number, not the talent.
McSorley comes into this game with more time to prep and as a 7-point dog, meaning the game script should create plenty of passing opportunities. Being at home with optimal passing conditions should also help the former Ravens quarterback. Additionally, it's a low total when we consider the game total is 40.
The Cardinals pivot will have talent catching the ball with DeAndre Hopkins, while speedster Marquise Brown is a possibility to suit up. Greg Dortch has also shown that he can absorb those targets if Hollywood Brown doesn’t get the green light to play, making his potential absence a little safer.
Another angle that might not be priced into this prop is the projected pace of this game. THE BLITZ has this as the second-fastest game of the week. Tampa ranks first in seconds per play, and Arizona is fourth in the league.
Trace McSorley Prop: Over 190.5 passing yards (-110)
