Buccaneers vs Falcons Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 5

Football bettors get some southern hospitality on Thursday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 5 opener.

Tampa Bay decimated a shorthanded Philadelphia Eagles team in Week 4 while Atlanta squeaked past the New Orleans Saints despite not scoring an offensive touchdown.

Oddsmakers opened this divisional rivalry below the key number of a field goal, with the home side laying 2.5 points and the total at a shorter stand of 43 Over/Under.

I size up those odds and initial market moves for Thursday Night Football, giving out early leans in my Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks for October 3.

Buccaneers vs Falcons predictions

Early spread lean
Buccaneers +2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Mid-week football produces some strange results, and through four weeks of play, so do the Atlanta Falcons. 

Atlanta is coming off a 26-24 win over New Orleans in which it failed to score an offensive touchdown, instead finding the end zone on a muffed punt return and a 47-yard interception return TD.

Overall, the Falcons' new-look offense with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Zac Robinson as the coordinator is falling short of high offseason expectations. Atlanta is just 21st in EPA per play, 22nd in first downs per game, 29th in third-down success, and a dismal 4-for-10 inside the red zone.

The same can’t be said for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He has the Buccaneers humming in the opening four games, sitting No. 8 in EPA per play and averaging more than 24 points per game. 

Quarterback Baker Mayfield looks like a smart investment after getting paid this offseason, not only rated Top 10 in many key QB metrics but getting his hands dirty on third-down runs and red-zone situations.

The validity of that offense can be questioned, with Tampa Bay’s biggest efforts coming against a terrible Washington defense in Week 1 and an injury-depleted Eagles team this past Sunday. What’s more, this short turnaround to Atlanta is just the second time the Bucs have played on the road in 2024.

I’m wary of Thursday games, so while my early lean is to Tampa Bay, I’d rather get the full field goal with Bucs before actually playing my bet. Otherwise, I’ll likely walk away from this one.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 43 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Falcons' offense may be a mess, but Atlanta should be able to run the ball with success against a Buccaneers defense getting bullied on the ground. 

Tampa Bay is allowing five yards per carry and sits dead last in EPA allowed per handoff heading into Week 5. Injuries in the front seven have hurt Tampa’s ability to stuff the run and those could be compounded on the short week. 

Atlanta has smacked into some solid run defenses in Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Kansas City but we’ve witnessed its ability to ground and pound in the win over the Eagles in Week 2, rushing for 152 yards on 28 carries.

That takes a lot of pressure off Cousins and the offensive line while setting up the Falcons for better down-and-distance situations. The Bucs bring a lot of blitz and own one of the highest QB hurry rates in the league. Cousins has faced the eighth-highest pressure rate among quarterbacks as teams test his mobility.

Atlanta’s defense could also be down a major cog on Thursday. Leading tackler Troy Anderson left Week 4 with a knee injury and is questionable for Week 5. This unit hasn’t been great, ranking in the back half of the defensive metrics, including the sixth-highest success rate per play allowed in the NFL.

The Falcons aren’t generating much in the way of pass pressure with a league-low four sacks and a pressure rate short of 15%, which lets Mayfield take his time. Atlanta plays a passive zone to protect against the deeper ball but will need to tackle better (29 blown tackles – third-most in the league) with the Bucs' receivers thriving on yards after the catch.

With this game inside the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, I could see the final score going Over the shorter total of 43 points on Thursday night. These NFC South rivals have played Over the total in seven of their last 10 head-to-head meetings.

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