The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking to secure a playoff berth as they travel to Atlanta to take on the already eliminated Falcons. Heading into Week 15’s divisional matchup, Tampa has a 95 percent chance of making the 2020 playoffs.
Both NFC South teams will see each other twice over the next three weeks. NFL odds saw the Buccaneers open as three-point road favorites but have since seen that number take off to -6 (O/U 50.5).
The Bucs will be without starting RB Ronald Jones (finger) while the Falcons never know if WR Julio Jones will play or not.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Falcons on Sunday, December 20 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other Week 15 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Buccaneers: Donovan Smith T (Out), Ronald Jones RB (Out).
Falcons: Julio Jones WR (Out), Darqueze Dennard CB (Out), Ricardo Allen S (Out), Marlon Davidson DT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last six games as a home underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The bye was certainly good for the Buccaneers, who were losers of three of four games before beating the Vikings last week. The win was a huge boost for a team that was dealing with more media scrutiny than ever. With three games left on the schedule (Atlanta twice and Detroit), the Bucs can make a strong push for the postseason, beginning with a victory over a struggling Falcons team.
Atlanta is a loser in three of its last four and scored just 42 points combined in those three losses. WR Julio Jones’ random appearances in the lineup have left an offense that can’t run the ball without its best offensive weapon too often of late. Jones is questionable again this week with a nagging hamstring injury that kept him out last week.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Falcons: they missed the playoff and got their coach fired. But it has been their play against the division that may leave them with a sour taste in their mouths in the offseason. On the year, the ATL is 1-3 SU (1-3 ATS) against the division and could easily go 1-5 SU on the season with two more games against the Bucs on the schedule.
A big injury that has hit our radar is that of Tampa RB Ronald Jones. Jones fractured his finger and will be replaced with a committee of LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. This is a downgrade but RBs are the most replaceable offensive position and this news shouldn’t sway bettors off the Bucs.
Missing the early number is always tough, but this is a Tampa team that is 8-1 SU against the division over its last nine games and is scoring over 30 points per game on the road.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay -6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Atlanta’s struggles on offense have correlated to a four-game Under streak. Looking back even further, the Under is 8-2 in the Falcons’ last 10.
Only eight teams in the league are averaging fewer than 100 yards rushing per game: and the Falcons are one of them. Tampa also has the league’s best rush defense, so Matt Ryan will have to move the ball through the air, which Tampa is likely game-planning against. Being one dimensional is never a good thing in the NFL—opposing coaches are too smart.
The Buccaneers came out running last week as Jones ran for 80 yards on 18 carries. Tampa Bay ran the ball more than it passed against the Vikings in Week 14 but had only 49 offensive plays. This is not as high-tempo as we are used to seeing with coach Bruce Arians.
Atlanta has been a home underdog twice this year and has hit the Under in both those games.
PREDICTION: Under 50.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
Tampa Bay sports the league’s No. 3 defense and is in the Top 10 in points against per game at 22.6. As we mentioned above, Atlanta will struggle to run the ball on Sunday, forcing itself into a one-dimensional offense. The Buccaneers extinguished one of the hottest QBs in the league last week in Kirk Cousins while simultaneously shutting down receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
The Falcons have failed to score 23 points or more in any of their last six losses and have been held to under 18 points in their last three. Atlanta is 6-7 O/U on its team totals this year but 1-3 O/U in its last four.
PREDICTION: Atlanta Falcons team total Under 23.5 (-120)
Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Card
- Tampa Bay -6 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
- Atlanta Falcons team total Under 23.5 (-120)
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