The Buccaneers travel to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face Atlanta on Sunday. It’s not often a divisional clash is a dead rubber but with the Buccaneers locked into playoffs and the Falcons looking forward to next season, it feels like a game in which neither team will be very upset to lose.
So, what is the best way to bet on a game like this? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atalanta Falcons to find out.
Buccaneers vs Falcons best odds
Buccaneers vs Falcons picks and predictions
At the time of writing, we aren’t totally sure if they’ll rest Tom Brady for the full game but the line has moved from Falcons -3 to -4.5, which shows that the sharp money is expecting Brady to be absent.
I’m certainly expecting Brady to be missing and, in addition to that, I think we’ll see fewer of the team’s best playmakers. That means less Mike Evans and less Chris Godwin, which could open up opportunities for the Bucs’ third option at wideout, Russell Gage.
Gage, a former Falcon, will be facing his former team and won’t need any motivation to turn up and ball out. Gage, a player hotly tipped to have a good season hasn’t really excelled as expected but still has four touchdowns on the season, with three of those happening in the past four games.
Gage is coming into this in great form, with a point to prove against his former team. When these two teams met in Week 5, he had six targets, tied for his third-highest this season, but only managed to haul in two. He’ll want to better that this season.
With Evans and Godwin likely to see less time on the field, it’s going to open up a lot of potential targets for Gage, whether it’s Blaine Gabbert or Kyle Trask who are under center. There are only five teams in the NFL who have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers this year than the Falcons.
Gage scoring is by no means a lock but the odds of +490 are far too big for a game that has so much unknown, it’s the clear best bet for this game.
My best bet: Russell Gage anytime touchdown (+490)
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Buccaneers vs Falcons spread analysis
As mentioned, the line has moved from the Falcons being favored by 3 points to 4.5, and it’s easy to understand if Brady and key starters aren’t suiting up for the Bucs.
We won’t see that for the Falcons, who need to use this final game to get a better handle on their team and what they have, ahead of this year’s NFL Draft.
Desmond Ridder has started for the team since Marcus Mariota’s injury but his performances have been mixed. They’ve not been absolutely awful like some of the other rookies, looking at you Malik Willis, but they haven’t been overly impressive either.
For that reason, the team needs to have another 60 minutes watching Ridder in action, before they can decide what to do in the offseason, either in the draft or in free agency.
The Bucs are 4-11-1 ATS this season with the Falcons at 8-8. Given the potential that we see a very weak Buccaneers team, I’d lean towards backing the Falcons to secure a win against their divisional rival on Sunday.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Over/Under analysis
The total points line since at 40.5, where is has been since opening. Given the nature of the potential quarterback play, I’d lean toward backing the Under regardless. Neither Gabbert nor Trask is a good QB and we’re yet to see anything from Ridder that should suggest he’s a great talent either.
We don’t need to rely on gut feeling though with trends also backing up the decision to go Under 40.5 total points. The Under is 4-0 in the Bucs’ past four games on the road and 6-1 in the team's past seven games against teams with a losing record.
Not only that but the Under is 5-0 in each of the Falcons’ past five games, as well as being 5-1 in the team's previous six games on grass.
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Falcons' past five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
Buccaneers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 8, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Falcons -3, 40.5 |
Buccaneers vs Falcons latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Falcons weather
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