Whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. After having their heart ripped out three times by the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round, the Buffalo Bills appear stronger heading into the 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo made targeted personnel moves during the offseason, patching holes and fortifying its biggest weakness from the year before — moves that many say were acts of panic and not careful planning for the future.
Whatever the cause, the Bills jumped up the Super Bowl futures board this offseason and enter 2022 as Big Game favorites, which also brings a lofty season win total and sizable spreads. These expectations are warranted for the best two-way team in the NFL.
We circle the wagons and take out the tables for our Buffalo Bills NFL betting preview.
Buffalo Bills futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +600 |
| To win conference | +325 |
| To win division | -240 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 11.5 (Over -150) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -700 / No +500 |
Best futures bet: Over 4.5 Divisional Wins +135
I’m calling an audible on this futures bet. I feel pretty confident Buffalo can get over 11.5 wins but I want no part of the -150 juice that comes with that wager. Instead, I turn my disdain for the rest of the AFC East into what looks like a great plus-money prop, pegging the Bills for five or more wins against their divisional rivals.
If you’ve taken in my previous team previews, you know I’m down on both the Patriots and Dolphins. That leaves little from the Jets, who may or may not have Zach Wilson in action.
Buffalo is going to go for the throat every time it plays Bill Belichick and Miami will be working out the kinks of Mike McDaniel’s playbook in the Week 3 meeting before a nasty sked spot at Buffalo later in the year (see below). And, of course, we have the Jets.
The Bills have lost just one divisional contest in the post-Brady AFC East — that being the wonky wind game versus New England in Week 13 last season. Buffalo is an average favorite of -6.83 in its six AFC East encounters this year, which pans out to an implied win probability of around 75% with room for one mulligan in those games.
Buffalo Bills betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
While much of the Bills’ support staff underwent a facelift, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier stayed put in Orchard Park, aiming to replicate a defense that ranked out No. 1 in a number of statistical categories — standard and advanced.
The nickel-heavy schemes slowed down rival passing attacks and kept everything in front of them, while the defensive line was responsible for the bulk of a league-high 30.8% pressure rate with little help from additional blitzers. Sprinkle in the leadership and championship pedigree of Von Miller — on the field and in the locker room — and Buffalo’s defense is going to give bettors a shot every single week.
That unit will be tested early on with top-tier offenses showing up in the first two months of the schedule before sinking its teeth into a bunch of late-season foes working in new systems and young QBs.
What will lose bets: Sizable spreads
The market consensus on the Bills can be reflected in the line movement for their Week 1 game at Los Angeles. Buffalo opened as a 1-point road underdog visiting the defending Super Bowl champs and offseason action on the visitor has swung this spread as far as Bills -2.5.
Buffalo saw similar moves in many of its 2021 contests, finishing the regular season at 9-6-2 ATS vs. the closing line (10-6-1 ATS vs. opening spread). Eleven games featured adjustments toward the Bills, while three others stayed put, and only three moved against Buffalo — one of which was the Week 18 finale with the Jets.
Expectations are high in 2022 with the Mafia facing an average spread of more than six points over the course of the season with those lines likely spiking toward double digits when the second half of the season serves up softer foes.
Don’t show up on Sunday morning looking to bet the Bills. You’re going to want to get down on the openers and avoid the public pushing these lines any higher.
Buffalo Bills game-by-game odds
Bouncing between the look-ahead markets at different books, you can get the Bills as the betting chalk in every single game on the 2022 board, with the Week 6 road game at Kansas City out there between pick’em and -1.5.
Buffalo draws an average spread of -6.09 this season (actually shorter than last year’s look-ahead average of -6.5) and the schedule gets softer as it plays out. The Bills face a roll call of tough teams in the first eight weeks (Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, and Packers) but should they survive that stretch with success, they can set the cruise control in the back half of the calendar.
Buffalo tackles an average spread of -7.3 in the closing 10 contests and those spreads will like climb by the time these games actually kick off. The Bills are 10-2 SU and 7-3-2 ATS as faves of -7 or higher the past two seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ L.A. Rams | -2.5 | 52.5 |
| 2 | vs. Tennessee | -7.5 | 51 |
| 3 | @ Miami | -4 | 50 |
| 4 | @ Baltimore | -2 | 50.5 |
| 5 | vs. Pittsburgh | -9.5 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Kansas City | PK | 54.5 |
| 7 | BYE | ||
| 8 | vs. Green Bay | -3.5 | 52 |
| 9 | @ N.Y. Jets | -8.5 | 48 |
| 10 | vs. Minnesota | -7 | 49.5 |
| 11 | vs. Cleveland | -9.5 | 47 |
| 12 | @ Detroit | -9.5 | 49.5 |
| 13 | @ New England | -3 | 49 |
| 14 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -11.5 | 47 |
| 15 | vs. Miami | -7.5 | 47 |
| 16 | @ Chicago | -7.5 | 45.5 |
| 17 | @ Cincinnati | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| 18 | vs. New England | -6.5 | 42 |
Buffalo Bills pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Best team in the league, but close to Kansas City. Cornerback is the one glaring weakness on the roster. They are lethal when Josh Allen decides to run.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Buffalo Bills early season forecast
The Bills and Rams welcome the 2022 season in style with a potential Super Bowl preview on Thursday Night Football. Given the explosion in sports betting across North America, this kickoff could be the biggest bet regular season game in gambling history.
The Bills have jumped the fence from +1 to -2.5 visiting the defending Big Game winner, drawing more than 70% of the early bets according to our Covers Consensus. Buffalo has been fantastic in non-conference contests since Josh Allen’s arrival, going 12-5 SU and 11-5-1 ATS versus the NFC since 2018.
The Bills are as big as 7.5-point home chalk against last year’s AFC top seed, Tennessee, on Monday Night Football in Week 2 (enjoying a mini bye off TNF). The Titans were one of just six teams to beat Buffalo in 2021, winning 34-31 at home with the Bills giving six points on the road in that game. This total sits at 51 points (two fewer than the closing O/U from last year) but Tennessee’s offense is projected to take a step back in 2022.
The AFC East food chain is defined in Week 3 when the Bills go to Miami. Buffalo is on the board between -3.5 and -4. The Bills are 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS vs. the Dolphins over the past four years and 16-8 SU and 13-9-2 ATS in divisional games in that same span.
Buffalo Bills spot bet
Week 15 vs. Miami (-7.5, 47)
The Bills get whatever is left of the Dolphins in Week 15, with Miami capping three straight road games in Orchard Park on December 18.
The Fins start this nasty stretch on the other side of the country at San Francisco in Week 13 and, depending on team plans, could stay on the West coast (rather than go home and come back) to play the L.A. Chargers in Week 14. Miami gets climate shock in Week 15, trading out the temperate California weather for the upstate New York winter (average temperature hovers around freezing at that time of year).
Books have Buffalo between -6 and -7.5 for this game with the total at 47 points. The Bills are 4-7 O/U in home games between Week 13 (start of December) and Week 17/18 for the past four years.
Buffalo Bills totals tip
The Bills suffered a loss on offense with coordinator Brian Daboll taking the job with the Giants but will see continuity with QB coach Ken Dorsey promoted to OC this offseason and Joe Brady moving into his former role. The past two years, Daboll leaned into Allen’s expanding skill set as a passer, running less but still utilizing a ton of RPO and play action to keep defenses guessing.
The biggest speed bump for the Bills is the offensive line. This unit ranked out second best in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders, giving up only 27 total sacks and a pressure rate of 23.2% in 2021. This season, there are a few new faces and some offseason ailments slowing the progression of this group, which ranks 17th in ESPN’s preseason projections. We’ll find out soon if the Bills O-line can match 2021, facing some stout defenses in the first two months.
I’ve already praised the defense, which wrapped last year tops in points per play allowed (0.303) and checked foes to 21 points or less in 13 regular season games. That boiled down to an 8-9 Over/Under count despite the Bills also ranking No. 1 in offensive points per play.
The early-season totals are tall. Six of the first seven games have Over/Under numbers of 50-plus and even a matchup with Pittsburgh in Week 5 carries a number of 46.5 points. I’m hunting for Unders in Buffalo games between now and Halloween.
Star power: Josh Allen props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | +650 |
| Most passing yards | +1,200 |
| Most passing TDs | +600 |
| Passing TD total | 35.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing yards total | 4,400.5 (Under -120) |
| Passing INT total | 11.5 (Over -110) |
| Rushing yards total | 550.5 (Over -115) |
| Rushing TD total | 6.5 (Over -115) |
Best prop: Under 4,400.5 passing yards -120
Allen’s passing yards prop is pretty much right on his 2021 production of 4,407 yards. He ranked fourth in attempts, with a significant uptick in passes from 572 in 2020 to 646 in 2021, but his average yards per throw dropped from 7.9 to 6.8.
Allen’s 2021 yardage was tempered a bit, considering he had just 145 yards in the wind-struck game with the Patriots in Week 13 and coasted in the home stretch with 210 yards vs. Carolina, 120 vs. Atlanta, and 239 vs. the Jets in the finale. A similar soft home stretch could also see Allen’s stats slide in the second half of the schedule, as the Bills pump the breaks in the final 30 minutes.
With Daboll gone, the offensive line in flux, and swapping out deep threat Emmanuel Sanders for slot target Jamison Crowder in the receiving corps, there are a few reasons why you’d want to go Under the 4,400.5 yards.
Another reason to stay below this total is that many other sportsbooks have Allen’s yardage Over/Under pegged much lower than the 4,400.5 hanging at DraftKings. FanDuel is at 4,320.5. PointsBet and bet365 are at 4,375.5. And BetMGM books are 4,349.5 yards.
Buffalo Bills trend to know
The Bills face-planted in Week 1 last year, suffering an embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh as 6.5-point home chalk — a defeat that blew up plenty of survivor pools as a result. Buffalo rallied in the next two games, winning SU and ATS by a combined score of 78-21.
Since Sean McDermott showed up in 2017, this franchise has been known for fast starts. The Bills are 11-4 SU and 10-5 Over/Under in the opening three games of the season the past five years, including a 5-2 SU/ATS record in road games in that three-week frame.
Bills’ first three games
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