Life in the AFC East is not as easy as it used to be for the Buffalo Bills.
With Miami's maturation and New York’s addition of Aaron Rodgers, the path to the division title — and the playoff ticket that comes with it — is no longer a smooth toboggan ride.
Buffalo has lost just three divisional games in the past three seasons but those gimmes are gone. Fold in a 2023 schedule that includes the likes of Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Dallas, and the L.A. Chargers, and even the most beer-fueled, chicken wing-filled member of Bills Mafia would have a tough time busting through that loaded table of opponents.
Bookies still set the bar high for Buffalo, in terms of NFL futures like their season win total and look-ahead NFL odds. I circle the wagons and see what’s up in upstate New York in my 2023 Buffalo Bills NFL betting preview.
Buffalo Bills futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Win conference | +450 | +450 | +475 |
| Win division | +120 | +120 | +125 |
| Make playoffs | -265 | -250 | -300 |
| O10.5 wins | -150 | -134 | -150 |
| U10.5 wins | +130 | +110 | +130 |
Best futures bet: Over 10.5 wins (-134)
This Over is priced as high as -150 at some shops but counting a clear 11 wins for the Bills isn’t as simple as it used to be.
If we project Buffalo to split games with the Dolphins and Jets and sweep the Patriots, that’s a 4-2 SU mark in the division. There are six more victories that should fall into place against weaker opposition along the way.
When we get to those huge non-divisional matchups mentioned above, the Bills will take at least one win (the Cowboys come to Orchard Park in mid-December, not the best spot for Dallas).
I balk at another AFC East title for Buffalo because New York is set up with a very soft stretch to end the year and the Bills must walk through hell and back from Week 11 onward with little help from home games.
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Buffalo Bills betting overview
What will win bets: Offense
The Bills are going to score. A lot. DraftKings has them tied as the third-overall favorite to lead the NFL in points in 2023 (+850).
Josh Allen is a Top 3 quarterback and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is expanding his schemes to give this offense different looks and versatility. On top of WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Allen has two top-tier tight ends in Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid.
The running game will find space with the threat of the pass-keeping defenses on their heels and the Bills offensive line could be the most underrated group on this roster. Four starters return and the protection depth was bolstered in the offseason.
Along with more 12-personnel and quicker passing strikes, Allen won’t need to scramble as much or feel forced to make deep throws. His turnover troubles stunted a Bills offense that still averaged close to 28 points per game. Allen threw 14 interceptions — five inside the red zone — and fumbled eight times (losing two).
Clean up those mistakes and Buffalo’s offense will always give bettors a fighting chance to cover the spread.
What will lose bets: Defense
Buffalo’s stop unit caught a curveball with coordinator Leslie Frazier leaving the team this offseason. That has head coach Sean McDermott juggling dual roles as the new DC for 2023.
Not only is Frazier gone, but the foundations of this defense are crumbling. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds left for Chicago and veteran pillar Von Miller is coming off a season-ending knee injury and runs the risk of missing the start of the season.
The Bills defense started strong in 2022, ranking No. 5 in EPA allowed per play in the opening nine weeks, but that metric swelled in the second half of the sked, with Buffalo falling to No. 16 in the final eight games.
Buffalo couldn’t contain top-tier passing attacks without pass pressure and some of the Bills' better pass defenders are health concerns: Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Damar Hamlin.
The rest of the AFC East offenses are improved and the remainder of the calendar packs a punch, with the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, Jaguars, and Cowboys on deck.
Buffalo Bills 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  New York Jets |
-1.5 |
| 2 | vs  Las Vegas Raiders |
-8 |
| 3 | @  Washington Commanders |
-4.5 |
| 4 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
-3.5 |
| 5 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-3.5 |
| 6 | vs  New York Giants |
-7 |
| 7 | @  New England Patriots |
-3.5 |
| 8 | vs  Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-10 |
| 9 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+1 |
| 10 | vs  Denver Broncos |
-6 |
| 11 | vs New York Jets |
-4 |
| 12 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+2.5 |
| 13 | BYE | |
| 14 | @  Kansas City Chiefs |
+3.5 |
| 15 | vs  Dallas Cowboys |
-4 |
| 16 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
-1 |
| 17 | vs New England Patriots |
-6.5 |
| 18 | @ Miami Dolphins |
+1.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Bills face one of the more daunting schedules in the NFL, with an SOS rating of No. 4. My NFL power ratings have Buffalo as the No. 5 team (70.59/100), based on that slate as well as win total and point spread projections.
The early spreads reflect that challenging calendar as the Bills are favorites in 13 games but give more than six points only five times after laying -6 or higher in 11 games in 2022. Those beefy spreads left Buffalo to finish 8-9-1 ATS last season.
The Bills have been regular season underdogs only eight times over the past three seasons, finishing 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when getting the points. Buffalo is a pup four times in 2023 with Miami favored by 1.5 in the regular season finale.
Week 1 sets the tone for the AFC East with the Bills traveling to play the Jets as 1.5-point road chalk. My ratings produced a spread of Buffalo -1.12 and the market for this Monday Night Football matchup is bouncing between -1 and -1.5 across the industry.
Sean McDermott has his work cut out for him as head coach and defensive coordinator this year, with an insane QB strength of schedule that features Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa twice, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott.
The back end of the schedule doesn’t help Buffalo much, at least when it comes to any home-field edge at Orchard Park in December. Buffalo plays just two home games in the final seven weeks, hosting Dallas in Week 15 and New England in Week 17.
Buffalo Bills schedule spot bet
Week 8: vs. Tampa Bay
The Bills hand over 11.5 points to the visiting Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in Week 8.
The short week comes off an important trip to New England in Week 7 and sets up a nasty look-ahead to Cincinnati the following Sunday night.
On top of that, Buffalo has plenty of back-and-forth before this quick turnaround for Tampa. Unlike most teams playing internationally, the Bills don’t get a bye after facing Jacksonville in London in Week 5. They’re immediately back in action to host the Giants on SNF in Week 6 before traveling to Foxborough in Week 7.
My ratings produce a spread of Buffalo -16, with the Bucs near the bottom of the league. Considering the trajectory of these teams and the fact that this look-ahead line sits in the no man’s land of -11.5, you can expect books to move quickly through dead numbers to -14 and beyond.
Star power: Josh Allen props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +800 | +700 | +750 |
| OPOY | +3,500 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Passing yards leader | +800 | +750 | +900 |
| Passing TD leader | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| O32.5 pass TD | +100 | -118* | -115 |
| U32.5 pass TD | -120 | -108* | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 4,350.5 | 4,150.5 | 4,300.5 |
*Pass TD Over/Under was 31.5 at FanDuel
Best prop: Under 4,350.5 passing yards (-115)
This player prop market sits as low as 4,150.5 yards at some books with the Under at -112. Most NFL player projections are calling for fewer than 4,300 yards from Allen in 2023, with a consensus just north of 4,200.
Ken Dorsey is trying to diversify the playbook and not rely on deep strikes so much, which means shorter and safer throws from Allen, who often got in trouble forcing the ball downfield. He finished with 4,283 yards passing in 2022, ranking tops in total intended air yards by a large margin.
Buffalo does face some sound defensive foes along the way, with the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins all twice, as well as Washington, Cincinnati, Denver, Philadelphia, Dallas, and the L.A. Chargers. They all rank within the Top 15 in preseason defensive polls.
Buffalo Bills betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The Buffalo Bills have to change some things on offense heading into the 2023 season and word on the beat is more 12 personnel and a bigger commitment to the running game. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey also told reporters that running back James Cook has three-down potential — a vote of confidence that I'm noting.
With Devin Singletary’s departure and Nyheim Hines’ injury, Cook could find a bigger role — including in the passing game, where he averaged 8.6 yards per grab last year. His average targets per game more than doubled from 1.3 to 2.7 after Week 11 and I’ll be waiting for his total yards and receiving prop markets to open as he could have the majority of the snaps between the 20s while Damien Harris and Latavius Murray fight over the short-yardage snaps.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
They’ve been at, or near, the top of the Super Bowl Futures odds board for a few seasons now, but they haven’t been able to break through, which could make this a make-or-break season for head coach Sean McDermott.
A criticism of this team is that they’ve been way too dependent on QB Josh Allen, who’s been second on the team in rushing yards in consecutive seasons. I don’t know if that’s what’s held them back, but they haven’t done much to address his supporting cast coming into this season.
Still, the championship window remains wide open as long as they have a prime Allen, but this is the season to prove that they’re more than just a great regular-season team.
Buffalo Bills trend to know
The Bills opened the 2022 campaign with a bang.
They decimated the defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams in the Thursday night season opener, winning 31-10 as 1-point road faves before stomping Tennessee 41-7 as 10-point chalk at home in Week 2. Buffalo lost by three at Miami in Week 3, finishing the first three weeks 2-1 SU and ATS.
It was another solid start for Sean McDermott, who is 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS in the opening three weeks of action since taking over as head coach in 2017. That includes a 6-3 SU and ATS count on the road in that frame.
Buffalo has won eight of those early-season contests by double digits and owns an average margin of +6.5 points in the first three weeks of play over the past six seasons. Take a 47-3 loss to Baltimore in Week 1 of 2018 out of the equation and that average margin spikes to almost +9.5 points.
The 2023 schedule sets up for another strong start for McDermott & Co., as Buffalo is a favorite in each of its first three games.
Bills favored in each of the first three weeks
- Week 1 @ New York Jets (-1.5)
- Week 2 vs. Las Vegas (-9.5)
- Week 3 @ Washington (-5.5)
