Cardinals vs Browns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 9: Tune Can't Hit Right Notes in Cleveland

The Cleveland Browns will host the Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 9 action on Sunday. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NFL standings with a 1-7 record and are giving rookie quarterback Clayton Tune his first start.

The Browns are 4-3 despite the extended absence of Deshaun Watson, and there's uncertainty about whether he'll return to the lineup on Sunday. Books seem to be pricing in a return for Watson with NFL odds installing the Browns as 8.5-point favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Browns on November 5.

Editor's Note: This preview was written before it was confirmed that Watson would start.

Cardinals vs Browns odds

Cardinals vs Browns predictions

Deshaun Watson has thrown just five passes since suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder in Week 3 against the Titans. Although Watson hasn't lived up to his billing since being acquired by the Cleveland Browns, he's far better than backup P.J. Walker, who has completed just 49.5% of his passes with five picks in three games as a starter.

Watson returned to practice this week but told reporters on Thursday that he's "not even sure" he'll be able to play on Sunday. That does not give me the confidence to lay more than a TD on the Browns. Instead, I'll look to fade this Arizona Cardinals offense against a Browns defense that has been dominant at times this year. 

Clayton Tune was a highly-productive QB in college at Houston, but there's a reason he lasted until the fifth round of the draft, and playing behind a poor offensive line against a Browns stop unit that brings a ton of pressure won't help. 

Despite subpar performances in the last two weeks, the Browns still lead the NFL in defensive EPA and success rate while ranking second in pass rush grade according to PFF. The Cards are 24th in offensive EPA and should be even less efficient with Tune under center. It doesn't help that starting running back James Conner has been sidelined by an injury, and while undrafted rookie Emari Demarcado has been a solid replacement, he's been absent in practice this week due to a toe injury.

Although the Under on Arizona's team total seems like a logical bet, the O/U of 14.5 (with the Under juiced to -125) is a bit too low, especially when you consider that Kyler Murray might play at some point in this game. The Cardinals' franchise QB (at least until the draft rolls around) has been rehabbing from a torn ACL but was a full participant in practice, and coach Jonathan Gannon says he's "fired up" about potentially playing in Week 9. 

Instead, I'll bet on this Arizona offense to struggle early on the road and put my money on their first drive ending in a punt.

My best bet: First drive outcome - Cardinals punt (-145 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Cardinals vs Browns same-game parlay

First drive outcome - Cardinals punt

Cardinals 1Q Team Total Under 0.5

Kareem Hunt Anytime TD

+475 at bet365

It seems a bit strange to parlay the Under on the Cardinals 1Q team total of 0.5 along with them to punt on their first drive (which will likely also happen unless the Browns immediately turn the ball over). But you can do it at bet365, and the two plays together pay out at +125. You can sweeten that pot even more by adding an anytime TD scorer prop for Kareem Hunt. 

The Browns have been using multiple running backs since losing Pro Bowl RB Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury. Jerome Ford has been their best back, but he's been limited by an ankle sprain and Hunt has been getting plenty of touches in the red zone of late.

Hunt has rushed for four touchdowns in the last three games and looks like a good bet to score against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in the league in offensive touchdowns allowed per game (2.9). 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cardinals vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with the Browns at -7.5 and moved up to -8.5 before buyback on the road side shifted the line down to -8. The total opened at 39.5 and has dropped to 37.5 as of Friday afternoon.

When it was officially announced that Watson would be the starter, money began pouring on Cleveland with this line growing as big as -13.5 by Sunday.

The Cardinals vastly outperformed expectations at the start of the season covering in their first three games. Regression has hit in a big way, however, and they've gone 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five. This is a team that has been playing hard, but they're starving for talent on both sides of the ball.

The recently-traded Joshua Dobbs was struggling at QB but was at least more experienced than Tune, and there aren't any weapons surrounding him. The Cardinals have been even worse on defense, where they rank 31st in EPA and 32nd in success rate. 

Cleveland's defense was historically dominant through the first five games of the season, holding opponents to just 200.4 yards per game. However, they have regressed a bit in that area, giving up 409 ypg in their last two contests. 

Cardinals vs Browns betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in Cleveland's last seven games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Browns.

Cardinals vs Browns game info

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