Kyler Murray and his possible shoulder injury travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the 4-6 New England Patriots, who opened as 2.5-point home dogs (49.5 O/U).
The Cardinals will have had a couple of extra days’ rest after playing last Thursday, and would be 0-3 SU in their last three if it weren't for the Murray Miracle. They are still just one game back of the Seahawks and the Rams for the top spot in the NFC West.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Cardinals vs Patriots on November 29 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots Betting Preview
Weather
Low-50s temperatures and clear skies are expected in New England on Sunday with a slight 6 mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald WR (Out), Deionte Thompson S (Out), Jalen Thompson S (Out).
Patriots: Rex Burkhead RB (Out), Isaiah Wynn LT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last five road games, 4-0 in their last four as a road favorite, and 6-0 in their last five on fieldturf. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Patriots.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Patriots finally got burned through the air last week as Deshaun Watson threw for 344 yards. No team is allowing more yards per pass completion than New England (12.1 yards). The Pats are giving up 231 passing yards per game on the year, but own the 30th-best DVOA pass defense.
The big question is if Kyler Murray can take advantage of a soft pass defense with his shoulder injury. He seemed to try to avoid contact last week, which meant his rushing attempts were down, but the phenom has had some extra time to rest up. He ended up completing 69% of his passes with a bad shoulder last week and is well over 70% across his last four games.
The loss of Rex Burkhead is a big deal for this New England offense, as the veteran was third on the team in rushing yards and only Cam Newton has more TDs. The Pats’ defense has just two takeaways over its last three games.
With the line trending toward the three, we’re jumping on the -2.5 earlier than later.
PREDICTION: Arizona -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Arizona offense is running fewer plays on the road than at home this year by nearly six per game. They’re also scoring four fewer points as the away team, despite playing in Seattle, Dallas, the Jets and Carolina in their last four road games.
The Arizona defense has also played better on the road this year as its 5.1 yards per play allowed is the 7th-best mark in the league. The Cardinals are 1-3 O/U on totals less than 50 points, and a perfect 0-5 O/U on the road this year.
Cam Newton’s offense is scoring less than 20 points per game at Gillette Stadium this year, which bests only five other teams. Much like Arizona, New England’s defense has performed better on home turf, as its 19.6 points allowed is eight points less than they allow on the road. New England is 1-4 O/U at home this year.
PREDICTION: Under 49.5 (-110)
First Score Prop Pick
The Patriots have the league’s No. 29 DVOA red zone defense and will have a tough matchup against the NFL’s No. 1 DVOA red zone offense. The Cardinals are scoring TDs in the red zone at 74% on the year and that number gets near-perfect on the road at 93%.
In their 10 games this year, the Cards’ first score of the game has been a TD nine times. Knowing this, and the fact that the Pats are scoring a league-worst 2.1 points per first quarter, it gives us a little more confidence to fire away on the first score of the game being an ARI TD.
PREDICTION: First score of the game — Arizona TD (+162)
Cardinals vs Patriots Betting Card
- Arizona -2.5 (-110)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
- First score of the game — Arizona TD (+162)
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