Chargers vs Browns Week 5 Picks and Predictions: What Can Brown Do For You?

Two teams at 2-2 and looking to get back above .500 will collide at FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Los Angeles Chargers battle the Cleveland Browns. 

The Chargers wiped the bad taste out of their mouths from a 28-point loss to the Jaguars with a 10-point triumph over the Texans last week. The Browns out-gained and out-possessed the Falcons in Week 4, but walked away with a field-goal loss on the road anyway. 

Which team will get their third win of the season in this spot? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Chargers vs Browns on Sunday, October 9.

Chargers vs Browns best odds

Chargers vs Browns picks and predictions

The Browns offense wasn’t given much respect by oddsmakers and bettors at the beginning of the year, but this unit is more than holding its own while Deshaun Watson sits out his suspension. Look for Jacoby Brissett and Co. to clear their team total against a soft Chargers squad on Sunday.

Cleveland exceeded its team total with room to spare in each of its first three games of the year, scoring no fewer than 26 points before settling for a modest 20 points in Atlanta in Week 4. However, it wouldn’t have taken much for the Browns to notch another touchdown in that tilt. 

Kevin Stefanski’s squad reached the Falcons’ two-yard line on two occasions in the first half alone, but settled for only three points. In fact, the Browns ran 11 plays inside Atlanta’s 11-yard line before the first half ended and gained just three yards. Bettors should expect this area of Cleveland’s game to be cleaned up ahead of Week 5. 

The Browns come into this contest ranked 25th in passing offense at 197.5 yards per game, but second in rushing offense at 187.3 per. Only the Saquon Barkley-led Giants have gained more yards on the ground per game in 2022 (192.5). Cleveland’s rushing attack is also tied for second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (seven), but it’s the league leader in first downs attained (46). 

Nick Chubb has rushed for 459 yards in 2022, a mere four yards behind Barkley for the NFL lead, and has crossed the goal line five times. Kareem Hunt has been a more-than-capable second-stringer, gathering 273 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. He could be a major threat catching passes out of the backfield against an L.A. defense ranked sixth-worst in the league in that department (45.3 passing yards allowed per game to running backs). The Chargers are also 10th-worst in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to running backs (109.5 per game).

My best bet: Browns team total Over 22.5 (-125 at BetMGM) 

Chargers vs Browns spread analysis

Many sharps appear to be on the Browns, as their spread has fallen to as low as +1.5 at some shops. Bettors would be wise to follow the money and wager against a somewhat suspect Chargers team on the road.

L.A. can be inconsistent, as it’s 10-24-1 against the spread in its last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in the previous affair. Justin Herbert is completing 66.9 % of his throws in 2022, and Cleveland’s defense is allowing the second-lowest completion rate (56.%) in the NFL through Week 4. 

The Chargers do not have the running game to combat the Browns with, as they’re last in the league in yards per contest (64.5). Cleveland could easily win the time-of-possession battle with its run-heavy style if it’s able to stymie Herbert early in this one. That would go a long way to a win and cover for the Browns as slight home underdogs. 

Chargers vs Browns Over/Under analysis

While the Browns grind their way to offensive success, Herbert and the Chargers should be able to air things out enough to ensure this game goes Over the total. 

The Chargers’ dismal 10-point performance against Jacksonville feels like an aberration. Factoring that effort out, L.A. is averaging 27.3 points per contest in 2022. Brandon Staley’s troops were fifth in the NFL in scoring (27.9 points per game) in 2021 with Herbert under center. 

Herbert is once again at the center of the Chargers’ offensive success, as he leads all of football in passing yards this season (1,250) despite playing with damaged ribs over his last two affairs. He looked no the worse for wear when he carved up the Texans for 340 yards on 27-of-39 passing (69.2%) with two touchdowns and no interceptions last Sunday.

Making things even more interesting is that Herbert is doing most of this without five-time Pro Bowl wide-out Keenan Allen, who’s missed three straight games with a hamstring injury. Wide-out Mike Williams (18 receptions, 258 yards, two touchdowns) and tight end Gerald Everett (16 receptions, 211 yards, two touchdowns) have picked up the slack in Allen’s stead. But Allen is considered “day-to-day” this week and could possibly return to action in this spot, further enhancing the chances of Over bettors cashing in here. 

Chargers vs Browns betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Browns.

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