Week 2 of NFL betting gets off to a sexy start with an AFC West war on Thursday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a divisional dance that could go a long way in deciding who comes out on top of this loaded group of contenders, and I'm here to run down the point spread, total, and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions.
The Chiefs muzzled any doubters in Week 1, blasting the Arizona Cardinals for 44 points en route to an easy win and cover on the road.
Meanwhile, the Bolts looked like they were rolling to a one-sided win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 but blew a 17-3 halftime lead and narrowly squeaked out a 24-19 win as 3.5-point home favorites.
Chargers vs Chiefs best odds
Chargers vs Chiefs picks and predictions
If the total for this game is any indication, Patrick Mahomes is going to be throwing — a lot. The Chiefs quarterback threw a modest 39 passes in the one-sided win over Arizona on the weekend, completing 30 of those tosses with five going for touchdowns and zero ending up as interceptions.
The Cardinals’ secondary was stale bread in the defensive backfield, so the front seven brought the house, blitzing on the bulk of dropbacks in an attempt to disrupt Mahomes. All those extra rushers resulted in a goose egg in sacks for Arizona. Mahomes mowed down the Cards’ man-to-man coverage, especially when Arizona had linebackers matched up on KC’s speedy WRs.
Enter the Chargers, with a secondary far stingier than Arizona.
Los Angeles’ defense did solid work against the Raiders in Week 1, boasting an EPA allowed per dropback of -0.148 — eighth best in the season openers. The Bolts’ ball-hawking secondary also recorded three interceptions off Derek Carr.
To complement those picks, L.A. had six sacks (and five QB knockdowns), generating that pressure despite blitzing on only 16% of dropbacks. Los Angeles got instant output from new addition Khalil Mack, who had three sacks, along with 1.5 sacks from defensive linemate Joey Bosa.
With the Chargers able to get after the QB without the need for additional pass rushers, that allows linebackers to drop into zone coverage, plug up anything underneath and help out the secondary with defenses leaning to Cover-2 sets vs. Mahomes. As the pocket shrinks, Mahomes will be pressured into some hurried throws which gives good value to the Over 0.5 on his total interceptions at +105.
In the two matchups between the Bolts and Chiefs in 2021, Mahomes threw three of his 13 total interceptions on the season, including two in a Week 3 loss to Los Angeles at home — one of which was a botched catch and incredible diving pick from Asante Samuel Jr.
That said, this game could turn into a shootout and the Chargers' ability to hurry Mahomes with the front four and plug up those passing lanes — along with the potential return of CB J.C. Jackson (Brandon Staley says 50/50) — should stir up at least one wayward pass from Pat finding its way into the arms of a Los Angeles defender.
My best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+105)
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Chargers vs Chiefs betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The lookahead line for this Week 2 primetime game was Kansas City -3 and most books opened around that key number Sunday night. That quickly climbed to Chiefs -3.5 across the industry.
Los Angeles will likely be without veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1 — a tough ailment to overcome on a short week of rest.
Over/Under analysis
This total opened as low as 54 points and has since climbed to 54.5 with early bets on the Over. Some books are pricing the Over 54.5 with added juice, which could indicate a move to 55 points as we get closer to kickoff on Sunday.
The last time these teams met, Kansas City won 34-28 in overtime in L.A. on Dec. 16, 2021 — with the regulation score playing Over the closing total of 54.5 points in that contest.
Chargers vs Chiefs game info
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Amazon Prime
Chargers vs Chiefs key injuries
Chargers vs Chiefs weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Chargers vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Chargers are especially profitable as road underdogs, with a 14-6-3 ATS count in that role the previous five seasons, including a 3-1 ATS as road pups in 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
