Some people in NFL circles were a little shocked when the Miami Dolphins made the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa, but the early returns on Tua Time have been great.
The Dolphins have won Tagovalioa’s first two starts as they head into their Week 10 matchup with another first-round QB in Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, and NFL bettors are quickly jumping on board, as the Fins have moved from 1.5 to 2.5 point home favorites.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Dolphins on November 15.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Weather
The Sunday forecast is calling for partially-cloudy skies with temperatures around 82 degrees for game time, and a very slight 7 mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chargers: Storm Norton T (Out), Joey Bosa DE (Out), Justin Jackson RB (Out), Austin Ekeler RB (Out).
Dolphins: Matt Breida RB (Out), Preston Williams WR (Out), Myles Gaskin RB (Out), Jordan Howard (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Whether it's been Fitzmagic or Tua Time, the Dolphins have been a great bet this season, going 6-2 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Dolphins.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
This matchup was immediately circled on the calendar of NFL bettors and fans everywhere after Tagovailoa was named the Dolphins’ starting quarterback during the team’s bye week, as it’s not every season where two quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10 face off.
For Miami, the defense did most of the heavy lifting against the Rams in Week 8, but Tagovailoa showed why he was such a highly-touted prospect last week against the Cardinals. The former Alabama star went 20-28 for 248 yards, two touchdowns and no picks in an eventual 34-31 win as 6-point underdogs.
But what made Tagovailoa look really impressive was the way he could extend plays with his legs, and made some tremendous throws on the run.
On the other side, the Chargers seem to keep suffering gut-punching loss after gut-punching loss. The latest was a last-second defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders where it appeared at first that the Chargers had won the game with a touchdown on the final play, only to have replay reveal TE Donald Parham Jr. couldn’t haul in the catch.
Tough losses aside, Herbert already looks like a star. The Oregon product with the big arm has already thrown for 2,146 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 67.3 percent of his passes.
And while the Dolphins’ overall defensive numbers don’t look great, they have been much better during their four-game winning streak. During that time, the Dolphins have recorded 11 sacks, nine takeaways, and lowered their opponent’s yards per game to 358.8.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense could still be missing star end Joey Bosa and that means more time for Tua to make plays. The Dolphins’ defense is playing better, and the team is well-coached by Brian Flores. And you just know the Chargers are going to do something to Charger at the end of the game. It’s Tua Time.
PREDICTION: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Over/Under for this game is on the board at 48 with the Chargers going 5-3 to the Over, while the Dolphins are 5-3 to the Under.
As mentioned, the Chargers defense has certainly been missing Bosa, but they have had trouble keeping teams off the scoreboard with or without him over the last month or so. The Chargers are allowing 30.4 points per game over their last five games, and while that includes some good teams like the Saints and Bucs, it also includes the Jaguars and Broncos. They just go through too many spurts of bad play at the moment.
Mixed with the emergence of Herbert, the Chargers have become an Over machine cashing the bet in each of those five games.
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa proved that he can put up points against a decent defense. In fact, the Cardinals rank 10th when it comes to defensive DVOA, while the Chargers rank 17th. This has the feel of a close game, that should sneak Over the number.
PREDICTION: Over 48 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Everyone talks about how impressive Herbert has looked chucking the ball all over the field, but some may not be aware of just how athletic the Chargers’ signal-caller is. The big-armed QB was a dual-threat at Oregon (look at his tape from the Rose Bowl last year) and the team is starting to take the training wheels off and letting him run free. Herbert has rushed for 110 yards over the last three weeks and no less than 21 over that stretch.
Herbert goes up against a Dolphins defense that has given up the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks at a clip of nearly 6 yards per carry, and are coming off a game where they let Kyler Murray rack up over 100 yards on the ground. Now, Herbert is not Murray, but we are getting a great number here. Bet the Over.
PREDICTION: Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Chargers vs Dolphins Betting Card
- Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Over 48 (-110)
- Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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