The final game of the regular season gives us a win-and-in as both the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders will look to advance to the playoffs. Both teams are healthy and points are expected to be scored on the fast track of the Death Star.
Can Zay Jones continue to be Derek Carr’s favorite target even with Darren Waller likely to return? Can Justin Herbert shine in the first big game of his career?
Find out in our free prop picks for Sunday night’s game between the Chargers and Raiders.
Chargers vs Raiders prop picks
- Keenan Allen Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Zay Jones Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Austin Ekeler anytime touchdown (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chargers vs Raiders SNF props
Missing in Allen
Keenan Allen has seen plenty of pigskin over the last few weeks, with double-digit targets in six of his last nine games and a 26 percent target share, but are his prop markets too high heading into Sunday night?
Allen has 33 targets over his last four games, the most on the team, but has done very little with them, turning those passes into 19 catches and 191 yards. Although we do love his TD prospects here if you can get it at +150, his reception total and receiving total are too high in our opinions.
Allen is sitting with a reception total of 6.5 that leans heavily to the Over. He has failed to hit this number in four straight weeks and has dealt with a few uncharacteristic drops. The Chargers’ pass-catchers are also heading into this matchup at full strength.
Allen will face off against Raiders slot corner Nate Hobbs (Pro Football Focus’s No. 9 corner) and although he is dealing with a DUI he stupidly picked up on Monday, this isn’t a cakewalk of a matchup for Allen. He finished with just 36 yards on seven grabs in the last meeting back in Week 4.
We’re avoiding the reception total and hitting the Under on his 70.5 receiving total instead. Allen is not a yac receiver, with his 3.3 yac/reception ranking him sixth on the team, and isn’t a huge risk to break one off. There is a reason his yardage total has fallen five yards over the last three weeks while his reception total has increased.
PICK: Keenan Allen Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Zay-dar
Zay Jones has seen his role expand each week over the last month. He leads all Las Vegas receivers in snaps since Week 14 and has totaled 25 catches and 262 yards. He’s coming off his best game of the season, with an eight-grab 120-yards performance versus the Colts’ No. 4 weighted DVOA defense, and will set his sights on the Chargers, who rank 23rd in DVOA pass defense.
He has become Carr’s favorite target of late and is playing the best stretch of football over his six-year NFL career. With running back Josh Jacobs still dealing with a rib injury, the Raiders’ running game may not be at full strength Sunday night meaning Carr could be passing even more. Las Vegas ranks eighth in the league in passes per game at 37 per game.
Jones’ receiving total opened at 41.5 yards and immediately headed north. There are some discrepancies on this total, as some books have gone as high as 48.5 yards, but FanDuel and DraftKings are still reasonable at 43.5. This is a number we’d play up to 50, which is a total Jones has topped in three straight weeks. Even with Waller likely back, Jones has a great shot at leading the Raiders in receiving yards in a game that could feature lots of points.
PICK: Zay Jones Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Austin limits
Austin Ekeler ran for a season-high 117 yards versus the Raiders back in Week 4, which has been a trend for the Silver and Black as Las Vegas is allowing nearly 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs per game on the season. It sold out to stop Jonathan Taylor last week, but with so many weapons on this Chargers offense, it won’t have that luxury this week.
Ekeler will be two weeks past his stint on the COVID list and he showed us last week that he didn’t have any lingering effects from the virus with 112 total yards and a touchdown. He split red zone carries with Justin Jackson, as both backs saw at least four carries inside the 20, but Ekeler just has a nose for the end zone with a TD in seven straight games. It may surprise some that Ekeler is only two TDs behind Taylor for the league lead in rushing scores and considering the Chargers’ RB is -110 to score Sunday while Taylor is -400, the pint-sized back is offering great value.
This price won’t be there Sunday morning so we apologize if it’s gone, but as of Saturday night, bet365 is still offering -110 which is a deal with other books as low as -170. We'd hit this play up to -130.
PICK: Austin Ekeler anytime touchdown (-110 at bet365)
