The AFC side of the NFL playoff bracket kicks off on Saturday with a higher-seeded host team set as a rare postseason home underdog.
The No. 4 Houston Texans welcome the No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers to NRG Stadium for a 4:30 p.m. ET start, getting a handful of points from the NFL odds. Home pups have proved profitable in the NFL playoffs, going 22-13-2 ATS (62%) since 2000.
Are the untested Texans worth a wager, or are they home dogs for a reason?
I take a look at the Wild Card odds and give my best Chargers vs. Texans predictions and early NFL picks for January 11.
Chargers vs Texans predictions
Early spread lean
Chargers -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Chargers opened as short as a 2-point road favorite in Houston and early action jumped on L.A. and rode this spread all the way to the key number of a field goal. As of Monday morning, the majority of the market lists the Bolts as 3-point faves.
The Houston Texans are home underdogs for a reason. Houston backed into the tournament with just 10 wins, but because of the poor state of the AFC South, it won the division and the home game that comes with it.
You have to go back to a Week 5 win over Buffalo to find a Texans’ victory with meat on the bone. The team has been able to beat up on weaker opposition but has come up short against playoff-quality competition, including losses to Kansas City, Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit.
Los Angeles may not be as strong as some of those qualifiers, but the Chargers are playing some of their best football at the right time, riding a three-game winning streak into the postseason. That includes a must-win game in Las Vegas in Week 18, putting the Bolts in that postseason state of mind ahead of the Wild Card Round.
The Chargers have been a solid road bet all season, boasting a 7-2 ATS record away from home. As the No. 5 seed, Los Angeles gets the benefit of playing indoors in the Wild Card Round rather than traveling to a cold-weather venue.
One of my first bets of the Wild Card Round was snatching the Chargers below the key number of a field goal, but I still feel they’re a solid play as a cheap 3-point road chalk (-105).
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s an indoor game, so you want to take a long look at the Over given the clean conditions and capable quarterbacks on the field. However, Houston’s shortcomings on offense are too much to ignore.
The Texans enter the postseason as the worst offensive unit in the tournament, ranked 21st in EPA per play and 31st in success rate per snap. Houston’s attack has peaked at 23 points over the previous five games and red-zone woes are at the core of that punchless playbook, going 5-for-15 in the RZ in that span.
The Bolts' defense has been a tale of two seasons. Los Angeles ranked among the league elite to start the schedule but has slowly come undone since Week 11. That said, the Chargers defense tightens up at the right time, owning the lowest touchdown rate allowed inside the red zone (45%) as well as the fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage.
Both offenses play a methodical pace, utilizing hurry-up tactics and the fifth and seventh-lowest rate, and L.A. aims to control tempo with a playbook that can anchor itself in the rushing game. The Chargers are among the better teams in dominating time of possession with that snail’s pace and parking the opposing attack on the sideline.
This Over/Under total opened at 44.5 and quickly got knocked down to 43.5 O/U. While it has already come through the key number of 44 points, 43 points is almost just as common. If you like the Under, go below 43.5 as some sharper books are shading the Under 43.5 with extra juice.
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Chargers vs Texans live odds
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