Chiefs vs 49ers Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Kansas City Prevails in a Pick'em

Week 7 of the NFL season is already here, and we have a terrific non-conference matchup when the 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs meet the 3-3 San Francisco 49ers.

Both sides enter this contest coming off tough losses. Kansas City suffered a 24-20 home loss to the Buffalo Bills, and the Atlanta Falcons doubled the 49ers' score in the Niners' away loss to the Falcons. Who will win this marquee matchup?

Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for this showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, October 23.

Be sure to also check out Phil Naessen's full game betting analysis before kickoff!

Chiefs vs 49ers best odds

Chiefs vs 49ers picks and predictions

We have a rematch of their Super Bowl 54 meeting, which Kansas City won in thrilling, come-from-behind fashion. I thought about simply playing the moneyline Sunday, but the Chiefs will win this game, and it will be by more than one point.

Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be looking to bounce back from a tough home loss to the Bills. He threw a pair of interceptions alongside 338 yards and a couple of touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the game. Mahomes is 3rd in passing yards, and his 17 TD passes are tied with Josh Allen for the league's top spot.

Mahomes probably misses former teammate Tyreek Hill, but tight end Travis Kelce has picked up the additional slack and leads the team with seven TD receptions. Off-season acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster hauled in his first TD reception in the loss to the Bills, and wideouts Mecole Hardman and Marquez-Valdes Scantling are having decent seasons.

The San Francisco 49ers' defense ranks 3rd in overall DVOA but 7th in passing. They allowed four TDs last week against Atlanta, and Kansas City will be in for its stiffest competition this season. CB Chavarious Ward and SS Talanoa Hufanga are both questionable, and Mahomes will have an easier time without those two suiting up.

Niners' QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been steady, throwing for 1,153 passing yards, seven TDs, and three interceptions. Deebo Samuel leads the team in targets with an additional 136 rushing yards and a TD. Brandon Aiyuk leads the team with three TD receptions, and TE George Kittle saw 10 targets last week.

The Chiefs' defensive DVOA is ugly. They rank 28th overall with a better rushing defense than a passing one, which has more to do with opponents looking up at the scoreboard than anything else. CB Rashad Fenton is out for Sunday, which should make it easier for Jimmy G to find Aiyuk or Samuel for a big one.

This contest has all the makings of a shootout. Kansas City has faced a demanding schedule thus far, and Mahomes and Co. won’t be rattled in the least by the 49ers' defense. Look for the Chiefs QB to rely on Kelce, and the banged-up Niners defense will have a hard time containing a duo who’ve connected for 42 scoring strikes since 2018.

San Francisco will respond in kind, but the 49ers' offense is average at best, and that won't be enough to outscore however many points their defense allows Kansas City.

My best bet: Chiefs -1 (-110 at Caesars)

Chiefs vs 49ers spread analysis

I’m going with the Chiefs -2.5, but here are some additional notes I have for the side bet. The Chiefs have lost two of their past four games, which can’t sit well with Andy Reid.

Since 2013, Reid and the Chiefs are 23-20 against the spread after a loss and 29-20 as the away favorite. 49ers' running back Jeff Wilson has done an excellent job running the football with the 12th most rushing yards in the league.

Chiefs' RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 92 yards against Tampa Bay but hasn’t had more than 10 carries since. He’s a little banged up but has been involved in the passing game with a TD reception.

The Chiefs don’t need big numbers from their RB to succeed, but a potent rushing attack would help set Mahomes up for greater success. Mahomes is 13-2-1 ATS when favored by three points or less.

Chiefs vs 49ers Over/Under analysis

The 49-point total looks a bit low for this one, and I’m leaning toward the Over.

The 49ers' defense allowed 28 points on the road vs. the Falcons, which was a bit concerning to me. That’s double their average points allowed, and the No. 1 Chiefs' offense may be a bit better than Atlanta's.

Kansas City allows the 19th most total yards in the game, along with the 24th most points allowed. Look for Garoppolo and Samuel to connect multiple times against a soft pass defense allowing 2.5 TDs per contest. San Francisco has averaged 29.3 points over its three victories this season but just 11 points in its three losses.

This week, the 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers. He’s an impact player, but we aren’t sure what he will or won’t do Sunday.

Chiefs vs 49ers betting trend to know

Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. 49ers.

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