The Kansas City Chiefs have converted their endless miraculous late-game wins into a guaranteed one-seed, and head into Week 18 to take on the Denver Broncos who are in a win-and-you're-in scenario.
And while they have technically nothing to play for while the Broncos have everything to play for my Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction is that the Chiefs can stay within the inflated point spread.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Sunday, January 5, with kick-off set for 4:25 p.m. ET, live on CBS.
Chiefs vs Broncos prediction
- Moneyline prediction: Broncos (-600 at bet365)
- Spread prediction: Chiefs +11 (-120 at bet365)
- Over/Under prediction: Under 40 (-110 at bet365)
- Best bet: Chiefs +11 (-120 at bet365)
Chiefs vs Broncos moneyline prediction:
Although our spread prediction and best bet for this AFC West matchup is on the Chiefs at +11, we still expect the Broncos to pull away with a win.
The Chiefs admittedly don't have much to play for, and Carson Wentz has been named starter as Patrick Mahomes gets a week of rest. Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are also expected to get the week off, but almost everyone else should be expected to play.
In last year's similarly pointless Week 18 game, Mahomes and Kelce were inactive along with then-Chief L'Jarius Sneed and Rashee Rice - who was the team's leading wide receiver at the time.
But everyone else, including key veteran offense and defensive linemen, started and played a decent chunk of the game. The offensive line had the most notable early exits, with names like Joe Thuney, Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, and Jawaan Taylor playing less than half the game.
This should give the Broncos enough room to win the game, and to do it late if need be.
Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under prediction:
That cathartic pace naturally lends its hand to the Under, but the defensive excellence of both sides also does as well.
The Broncos are fifth in defensive DVOA on the year, which includes the sixth-best defense against the pass and the second-best defense against the run.
The Chiefs aren't that far behind, sporting the ninth-best defense on the year that includes the same rank against the pass and the run.
My best bet
Chiefs +11 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Given that everyone else should play and especially given that the Kansas City Chiefs have enough talent across the depth chart, the Chiefs should be able to stay competitive throughout the game enough to stay within a +11 spread.
Looking at the Denver Broncos' nine wins this year, they've managed to win by more than 11 an impressive six times. But five of those wins came against the three-win Raiders, four-win Panthers, five-win Saints, and Kirk Cousins before getting benched, and Anthony Richardson who went 17-for-38.
The Chiefs, even in their projected limitations, wouldn't profile as poorly as those teams. Last year they still managed a 13-12 win over the Chargers; in 2022 they beat the Raiders 31-13; and in 2020 they lost 38-21 but played zero of their starters — all years in similar situations.
Denver is also a low-pace team, as their 61.4 plays per game ranks 18th this year and their 26.7 seconds per play is a much worse 24th. Kansas City is not much better on the year at 27.0 (20th), and they have every reason to slow it down further.
It won't be pretty, but the game should be closely contested enough and slow enough for Kansas City to play inside 11.
Chiefs vs Broncos same-game parlay
Chiefs +11.5
Marvin Mims Over 37.5 receiving yards
Jaleel McLaughlin Over 44.5 rushing + receiving yards
Marvin Mims is not a household name at this point but his performances as of late have certainly turned some heads. Last week he turned in eight receptions (a career-high) for 103 yards and two touchdowns (another career-high).
Mims has seen snap percentage highs in the last month, especially the last two weeks, and has seen four or more targets in five straight games. He also has 44 or more yards in five of the last six games.
Another player who has been leaned on more as of late is scatback Jaleel McLaughlin, who has seen an average of 10.3 carries and 2.3 targets across the last three games. That is far better than the 5.5 carries and 1.5 targets he had managed in the 12 games before that.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
Chiefs vs Broncos live odds
Chiefs vs Broncos opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City +10.5 | Denver -10.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City +362 | Denver -502
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 | Under 38.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver is 11-5 against the spread this year, which is tied for the second-best cover rate of the year.
- Kansas City has gone a dead even 8-8 against the spread this year and has split their two instances as an underdog this year at 1-1 ATS
- The Broncos are a league-best 5-0 ATS as home favorites
- The Chiefs have slightly favored the Under this year at 9-7
Chiefs vs Broncos betting trend to know
Denver has gone 10-5-1 to the Over this year, good for the seventh-highest rate of Overs on the year. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos.
Chiefs vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Chiefs vs Broncos latest injuries
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