The Kansas City Chiefs are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and can secure it with a Tennessee loss plus a win Saturday over the Denver Broncos. Both teams are expected to play their starters but that still doesn’t offer much security for player props, which is why very few markets have opened early.
That being said, there are still a few spots that we think these early numbers can be taken advantage of.
Without further ado, we bring you our Week 18 free player props and predictions for Chiefs vs. Broncos on Saturday, January 8.
Chiefs vs Broncos prop picks
- Mahomes Under 272.5 passing yards (-114)
- Fant Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115) and anytime touchdown (+350)
- Williams anytime touchdown (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for Week 18, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Travis Kelce Over 99.5 receiving yards + anytime touchdown in Week 18 boosted to +600 at Caesars! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Chiefs vs Broncos Week 18 props
Fading Mahomes
The Chiefs have scored 149 points over their last four games as this offense is getting hot at the right time. Patrick Mahomes has had to deal with missing key pieces over this stretch but has stayed consistent as a passer, having not thrown for less than 258 yards in any of those games. However, with a passing total of 272.5 — a number he is 5-1 to the Under over his last six games — we’re looking to fade the Super Bowl MVP in Week 18.
In a Week 13 meeting with the Broncos at Arrowhead, Mahomes finished 15-for-29 passing for 184 yards. The Chiefs still won that game 22-9. With Denver quarterback Drew Lock struggling in his starting role and dealing with a shoulder injury, Mahomes might not need to bring his A-game to Colorado.
Mahomes had his worst passing game versus Denver’s defense five weeks ago as it held him to a season-low 51.7 completion percentage. In that game, the Broncos had plenty of success running the ball and Javonte Williams (178 total yards) kept the Chiefs’ defense on the field — and Mahomes off of it. Last season, Mahomes went 15 of 23 for just 200 yards in Denver, despite the Chiefs walking away with a 43-16 victory.
The Broncos are allowing just 185 passing yards per game over their last three games with Justin Herbert throwing for just 237 yards last week in a one-sided Los Angeles victory. In his last five games as a 7+ point favorite, Mahomes has passed for more than 275 yards just once.
The win is the most important thing here for the Chiefs, but as double-digit road chalk, Mahomes might not be asked to do a whole lot in what should be a comfortable victory against a Denver offense that can’t score with Lock. We’re aware that he needs 431 passing yards to hit 5,000 for the season, but Mahomes hasn’t hit this mark since 2018 and we’d like to believe this veteran team values a win and health more than individual accolades.
We’re comfortable taking this total down to 260 yards as it is already starting to fall after opening at 273.5 yards.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Under 272.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Fan of Fant
The Denver offense has been a disaster since Drew Lock has taken over, averaging just 4.6 yards per play. Lock, however, is coming off his best game of the season and has found quite the chemistry with tight end Noah Fant, who finished last week with six catches for 92 yards and a score.
Fant is playing 90 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, getting 21 percent of the team’s targets, and has 74 more yards than the next best Denver pass-catcher over that stretch. He also led the team with two red-zone targets a week ago.
The athletic tight end has 17 grabs over the last three weeks and has been held to under 50 yards just once since Week 14. Despite the recent success with Lock, his receiving yard total opened one yard shorter than it did two weeks ago. After a 90-plus yard game, there hasn’t been much adjustment to his yardage total which is fine by us.
Denver could be chasing points all game and getting Lock’s favorite target at +350 to score a TD and at 42.5 receiving yards are two plays we’re comfortable backing. We're happy to take the Over up to 45.5 yards. With a great price of +350, we can throw half a unit on the TD and still be up +1.75 units with a score.
PICK: Noah Fant Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel) and anytime touchdown (+350 at PointsBet)
D-Will's backfield
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out for a second straight week, which means it will be Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore getting the backfield snaps for the Chiefs. Last week with CEH on the shelf, Williams out-snapped Gore 49 to 8 and had 14 of the team’s 18 running-back carries. Williams finished with 88 yards on the ground, two scores, and another 19 yards through the air.
Denver has the No. 17 EPA/play rush defense and with the Chiefs entering as 11.5-point favorites, they'll have plenty of time to establish the run.
Williams saw all of the Chiefs’ red-zone carries last week and could be in for another big day with Kansas City likely stressing ball possession in its must-win game. In the six games that Edwards-Helaire has missed this season, Williams has five total touchdowns, including two last week.
Denver has allowed the third-fewest rushing TDs on the season but with opposing running backs averaging over 135 total yards per game against Vic Fangio’s defense, RBs can succeed versus the Broncos. The Chiefs had only two red-zone drives in the last meeting, with their only touchdown coming on the ground.
As Williams is set to take the majority of the carries as a double-digit favorite, we have no problem laying the -110 price tag for a D-Will touchdown.
PICK: Darrel Williams anytime touchdown (-110 at PointsBet)
