The former face of the NFL takes on its present persona when Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12.
Tampa Bay opened as a 3-point home underdog for this game before Monday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, which tacked on an extra half-point hook to make the Chiefs 3.5-point favorites. Kansas City has won five straight games, going 3-2 ATS in those outings while the Bucs have dropped two of their last three contests.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers on November 29.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Weather
The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 79 degrees, with winds blowing up to 9 mph, and no chance of showers. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Mitchell Schwartz T (Out).
Buccaneers: Jamel Dean CB (Out), A.Q. Shipley C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last eight road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Buccaneers can’t afford to get into a shootout with Mahomes and the Chiefs—not after their offensive performance against the Rams Monday night. Brady fell off the face of the Earth in the second half and failed to capitalize on the defense’s big stands in the fourth quarter.
This Tampa Bay stop unit is the toughest defense K.C. has faced all season and Week 12 will very much hinge on how much that unit can knock Mahomes off rhythm. Save for that disaster of a day against New Orleans in Week 9, Tampa Bay’s defense has been the backbone of this team and ranks second in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The Bucs are disruptive, with 19 takeaways (14 INTs) and 32 sacks on the season. In the Chiefs’ lone loss on the year – a 40-32 defeat to Las Vegas at home in Week 5 – Mahomes was sacked three times, knocked down four times, completed only 51 percent of his throws and was picked off once (one of his only two INTs on the season).
This is the second straight road game for Kansas City, which could also suffer a letdown after a thrilling last-second win over the rival Raiders last Sunday night. We like the home side getting the half-point hook in what should be a great game.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Kansas City’s defense doesn’t bring the same pass pressure as the Rams’ front four and the Chiefs haven’t been sharp the past two games, allowing 31 points in each of those outings. However, outside of a second-half surge against Carolina in Week 10, Brady & Co. have been pedestrian the past month. The veteran QB has a passer rating of just 82.5 in November with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Bucs defense will need help from the offense on Sunday, in terms of parking Mahomes on the sideline. Tampa Bay will look to shorter passes and plenty of handoffs to keep the clock ticking and defuse that explosive Chiefs attack.
The ground game has been terribly inconsistent for Tampa but does have the potential to chew up the turf. It compiled 210 yards on 37 carries in the win over Carolina and faces a K.C. defense allowing 133.5 rushing yards per game and sitting 30th in rush defense DVOA.
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Plenty of prop players and fantasy owners had Bucs RB Ronald Jones II pegged for a big Week 11. However, Tampa Bay handed off to him only 10 times for a grand total of 24 yards, getting snuffed out by a dominating Rams defense.
The Buccaneers seem at their best when Jones is heavily involved. In the three games in which he’s carried the ball 20 or more times, the third-year back has 416 total rushing yards and three touchdowns. Veteran rusher Leonard Fournette continues to vulture touches, despite rushing for just 4.0 yards per carry, as he presents a better passing option out of the backfield.
With the Chiefs getting pushed around on the ground and the Bucs trying to eat up the TOP, we like Jones to go Over his rushing total in Week 12.
PREDICTION: Ronald Jones II Over 59.5 rushing yards (-120)
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting Card
- Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Ronald Jones II Over 59.5 rushing yards (-120)
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