Week 15 kicks off with one of the best matchups of the week as the Los Angeles Chargers look to break the Kansas City Chiefs’ five-game winning streak and tighten things up in the AFC West.
Can Justin Herbert and the offense break through this newly dominant KC defense? Can Patrick Mahomes and the offense hold onto the ball and avenge a Week 3 loss? Find out in our Week 15 TNF props and predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers
Chiefs vs Chargers prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes Under 290.5 passing yards (-110)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 field goals (+100)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs vs Chargers TNF props
Short and Sweet
In the second game between two divisional opponents, it’s always good to go back and see how the first meeting was won/lost as the losing coach will almost certainly try to fix those issues that cost his team the victory. For Andy Reid’s case, he has been likely preaching ball security as Kansas City had four turnovers with Patrick Mahomes throwing two interceptions in their 30-24 loss to the Chargers in Week 3. Both of those picks were on deep passes and with so much on the line Thursday and playing with a defense that has allowed just 65 points over its last six games, short and quick could be on the passing agenda Thursday.
Over those six games, Mahomes has passed for 275 or fewer yards five times. Outside of last week’s blowout, the Kansas City signal-caller had been averaging just 6.42 yards per pass which is Jared Goff territory. He finished 27 for 44 for 260 yards versus the Bolts in Week 3 and started almost every drive from his own 30 or worse (nine of 10 drives) thanks to turnovers and the Chargers scoring in all five of their red-zone trips.
Now with a rolling defense, Mahomes should be seeing some shorter fields and continue to take what the defense is giving him - which is more zone coverage. Over the current five-game winning streak, his two longest touchdowns have gone for 38 and 23 yards — both to his running back.
The Chargers are also one of the worst run defenses in the league while the Chiefs’ backfield is back to 100 percent. Mahomes’ opening total of 290 passing yards is the highest it’s opened in three weeks and we’re already starting to see it fall as low as 285.5.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Under 290.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Run and Clyde
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played three games since returning from injury and has seen roughly 50 percent of the snaps excluding last week where things got lopsided pretty quickly. He’s run for 4.3 yards per carry and could be in for another big game versus the Bolts who rank last in success rate vs. the run.
In Week 3, Edwards-Helaire rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries with a long of just 14 yards meaning the gains of five-plus yards were plenty. The Chargers allow 120 rushing yards to opposing running backs per game which is the second-highest amount in the league. The Giants managed 5.2 ypc last week versus the Bolts while Los Angeles forced the Bengals to go pass-heavy the week before which contributed to Joe Mixon's low rushing yardage.
Brandon Staley won’t be able to sell out to stop the run which should benefit Edwards-Helaire who will have fresh legs on the quick turnaround after seeing fewer snaps in last week’s blowout win. CEH’s rushing total has closed above 60 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks and currently sits at 52.5. In the game he returned from injury in Week 11, CEH's rushing total also closed at 52.5 yards and that contest had had plenty of uncertainties compared to tonight's plus matchup.
PICK: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Rain Man
The Kansas City defense has been a beast over the last six or so weeks. It was rough sledding in September and October, but Andy Reid’s defense has found its groove which has been supported by an incredible red-zone defense. Opponents are scoring red-zone TDs at a 28% clip versus the Chiefs over the last three games which is the second-best mark in football. The Chargers scored a TD in four of five red-zone trips in the first meeting and was one of the bigger reasons that Reid and the Chiefs took the loss back in Week 3.
Also in that game was coach Staley forgoing a long possible game-winning field goal as the trust in then kicker Tristan Vizcaino was at a low. Well, the Chargers have changed kickers and Dustin Hopkins has fit in well and is 12 for 12 in fields under 50 yards since Week 8. He's coming off a 12-point game at home last week and is averaging 7.9 points per game since signing with the Bolts.
The Chiefs aren't blowing teams out of the water of late, with the exception of the Raiders, and the old adage of “you can’t beat the Chiefs with field goals” may not apply in Week 15.
Hopkins' points total sits at 6.5 (-130 to the Over) but his FG total is paying +100 to the Over 1.5. With the Chiefs being stingy of late, we like the chance of the Chargers' kicker to hit two field goals at +100 than one field goal and four extra points at -130. Bet365 has the Over 1.5 team total field goals for the Chargers at -132 which makes this a +EV play and a possible pricing mistake.
PICK: Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 field goals (+100 at DraftKings)
