The NFL betting board for Week 14's Sunday afternoon is headlined by a battle between the Super Bowl favorite Kansas City Chiefs and the upstart Miami Dolphins.
The rebuilding Dolphins are primed for a playoff berth after an 8-4 start to the season while the reigning Lombardi Trophy winners the Chiefs are 11-1 and opened as 7.5-point road favorites for Sunday's matchup.
We break down the NFL odds with our best picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Dolphins on Sunday, December 13, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Weather
It's expected to be a beautiful afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, with a temperature of 81 degrees, breezes reaching up to 9 mph, and no chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Taco Charlton DE (Out), Mitchell Schwartz T (Out), Kelechi Osemele G (Out), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G (Out), Damien Williams RB (Out).
Dolphins: Myles Gaskin RB (Out), Salvon Ahmed RB (Out), Erick Flowers T (Out), Elandon Roberts LB (Out), Matt Breida RB (Out), Preston Williams WR (Out), Davon Godchaux DT (Out), Vince Biegel LB (Out), Albert Wilson WR (Out), Allen Hurns WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Dolphins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Dolphins.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
With the second-best record in the league and led by the MVP betting favorite in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are a tough task for any team to beat. Covering the spread against them is another matter entirely however, with Kansas City just 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
While oddsmakers might be overestimating the Chiefs, they continue to overlook the Dolphins, who have made rapid strides this year after going 5-11 in Brian Flores' first season as head coach in 2019. The Dolphins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games and rank second in the league in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 17.7 points per game.
While that number might be a bit misleading due to the fact that they've played five games against the most inept offenses in the league (the Jets, Broncos, Jaguars and Joe Burrow-less Bengals), they have also beaten tougher foes such as the Rams and Cardinals.
Despite their offensive brilliance, the Chiefs rank just 24th in the league in red-zone touchdown conversion rate at 57.5 percent, and that number has dropped to just 33.3 percent in their last three games. If those red-zone woes continue, it won't be easy for Kansas City to cover spreads of more than a touchdown against playoff-caliber teams on the road.
PREDICTION: Miami +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Even with the Chiefs struggling to convert in the red zone, they can still put up plenty of points on the board thanks to Mahomes' deep throws. And despite the Dolphins going 5-2 to the Under in their last seven games, the Chiefs are just a wee bit harder to contain than the Bungles and Jets.
As a matter of fact, in Miami's three games this season against high-scoring teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks and Bills, the total number of points scored was between 54 and 65.
The Chiefs rank first in the league in yards per game with 427.6, but rank a modest 17th in the NFL in total defense by surrendering 358.2 ypg. Combine that with an improving Tua Tagovailoa at QB for the Fins and a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back, and you have all the ingredients for an Over.
PREDICTION: Over 49 (-110)
First Quarter Bet
It's no surprise that the Chiefs have a high-flying offense that loves to get off to fast starts. It might be more shocking that the Dolphins are actually the highest-scoring team in the league in the opening quarter, averaging 7.5 points per game.
Kansas City is tied for second-place with 6.7 first-quarter ppg and the fact that both teams are so dangerous in the early going has us hammering the Over 10 for the first-quarter total.
PREDICTION: First Quarter Over 10 (-102)
Chiefs vs Dolphins Betting Card
- Miami +7.5 (-110)
- Over 49 (-110)
- First Quarter Over 10 (-102)
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