This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup got a lot more interesting over the past 24 hours, with the Atlanta Falcons finally showing some fight before hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
New-look Atlanta appeared to be a dud for six quarters of the 2024 season, but surged in the second half of Monday’s matchup with Philadelphia and stole a one-point win on the road, setting the stage for this SNF test.
My Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions size up the spread and Over/Under total, as well as the line movement for Sunday Night Football, with my early leans and NFL picks for September 22.
Chiefs vs Falcons predictions
Early spread lean
Chiefs -3.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Atlanta Falcons held a special place in the offseason markets, with a lot of respected action jumping on ATL with its coaching moves and QB swap to veteran Kirk Cousins. That had the look-ahead line at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 for this Sunday-nighter.
Books bumped that at -4.5 before Week 2’s finale, and on Tuesday morning, many books were dealing the same spread. However, it didn’t take long for bets to come in on the Falcons, with their win on MNF still fresh in the minds of bettors, who also watched KC benefit from a late flag against the Bengals on Sunday.
The Chiefs also lost running back Isiah Pacheco for an extended period due to injury, taking the wheels off of the Kansas City running attack. That leaves rookie RB Carson Steele and third-down back Samaje Perine as the only healthy rushers.
Kansas City still has plenty of pop on offense, but it will be the KC defense that makes the difference on Sunday night. The Chiefs will attack Cousins with an aggressive pass rush, much like Pittsburgh did in Week 1, ranking among the most blitz-happy schemes in the NFL.
That will disrupt this new Atlanta playbook and really test the mobility of Cousins, who wasn’t pressured much in the win over the Eagles. And if Patrick Mahomes and the offense can put up points early, the Falcons will be forced to drop back more than they would like.
I could see this spread coming back up and settling at Chiefs -4 later this week. I’m often skittish about 4-point faves (win SU 55.6%, lose ATS 61% since 2020), so rather than lay the points with Kansas City, I would lean toward the moneyline (-190) and keep this clean and simple.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The look-ahead total set in the summer was 49 points. After two weeks of results, the official Sunday Night Football O/U is on the board at 46.5 points.
Losing Pacheco is a hit to the Chiefs’ game plan, but Kansas City’s short passing plays can create makeshift handoffs behind the line of scrimmage. Mahomes is a master of the screen, entering Week 3 with the second-lowest intended air yards per attempt and the second-most yards after the catch per throw.
Teams are playing more two-high safeties versus Mahomes, and with Hollywood Brown never making it on the field, the Chiefs don’t have the deep threats they had hoped for. The Chiefs' most reliable receivers are short-to-intermediate targets Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, who's had a quiet start to 2024.
As for the Falcons offense, Raheem Morris wants to run as much as he can in order to take pressure off Cousins. Atlanta did just that against Philadelphia, rumbling for 152 yards on 28 carries with Bijon Robinson and Tyler Allgeier packing a punch in the backfield.
Kansas City has been susceptible to the run game for a while now, and that’s continued into 2024, with KC ranking 29th in EPA allowed per handoff while rival rushers enjoy a league-high 58% success rate per run. The Chiefs have given up 19 first downs on rushing plays in the first two games of the season.
If the Falcons continue to chip away at Kansas City’s defense, ithey can control pace and tempo while playing keep-away from Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Smells like an Under to me. Atlanta just can't allow Kansas City to score early and often.
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Chiefs vs Falcons live odds
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