Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Here are his five ATS picks for Week 12 of the Circa Million betting contest.
Week 11 record: 3-2
Season to date: 33-22
Place: T-428 / 4,086
Week 12 picks
- New York Jets +2.5
- New York Giants +3.5
- Cincinnati Bengals -4.5
- Los Angeles Rams PK
- Washington Football Team -1
Read on for a quick analysis of each play but watch the video above for more details.
New York Jets +2.5
The Houston Texans have done nothing this season to be deserving of a 2.5 point spread at home - even against the Jets. Last week the Texans upset the Titans, which went a long way in keeping this game above a PK, but the box score was anything but supportive. Houston mustered just 3.1 yards per play and was outgained by nearly 300 yards. It benefitted from a +5 turnover margin and made the most of Titans’ mistakes.
As bad as the Jets are, they still rank 0.5 yards per play higher than the Texans and get Zach Wilson back with all receivers healthy. The Jets offense is better, their defense is better, and their coaching staff is better. I do not like the line and see a lot of value in New York here.
New York Giants +3.5
I will always look to back a team that is going nowhere that experiences a midseason reset. The Giants’ offense has completely sputtered out, and the removal of Jason Garrett could not come at a better time. Freddie Kitchens is stepping in to take over playcalling duties, which looks like a terrific move. Kitchens entered as the interim OC for the Browns in 2018 and made an immediate impact with Baker Mayfield. I expect the same with Jones. Kitchens simplifies the offense and puts every QB he calls plays for in a spot to succeed with pre-snap motion, play-action, and passes from heavy sets.
The Eagles do not blitz, generate a lot of pressure nor play tight coverage. They concede the highest opposing QB completion percentage in the league, and it is a great spot for Jones and this offense to get right with the new play-caller.
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5
The market number on this game is shaded towards Pittsburgh +3.5, which I disagree with. In contests or betting, taking the worst of the number is never a good strategy but, in this spot, I am willing to fade a popular pick in Pittsburgh with the hope of gaining a game on many entrants and because I make CIN nearly -6. I do not understand the intrigue with Pittsburgh. It had a phony comeback against the Chargers and its defense continues to concede points to poor offenses.
On the season, Cincinnati is more than a half yard per play better and is a significant step up in class for the Steelers’ secondary. Cincinnati ranks third against the run this season and can force the Steelers to be one-dimensional. Forcing Pittsburgh to pass when playing from behind is a great spot for any team to be in. I like Cincinnati a lot here.
Los Angeles Rams PK
Aaron Rodgers is going to start despite not practicing all week. As experienced as he is, it reflects the severity of the injury issue to his foot and toe. This can be problematic when he is forced to play behind an offensive line without Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari, who grade as the two best linemen. Behind those two key starters are three linemen who do not rank inside the Top 90 for linemen in the league this season. On the other side in this matchup is the Rams’ pass rush. None of this is a good matchup for Green Bay.
Matthew Stafford is rumored to be fully recovered from the injury which hampered him in early November and coming out of the bye is expected to play under center. The Packers’ defensive numbers are inflated relative to the talent on this team, but if forced to defend play-action, the Rams will have a lot of success both passing and running. Green Bay is 30th vs. the run and the fifth most impacted defense when defending play-action throws - a staple of McVay's offense. From the contest perspective, this is another spot where I anticipate more users to be on Green Bay at home at PK and a chance to gain ground.
Washington Football Team -1
The Seattle Seahawks are broken. Russell Wilson returned from injury four weeks ahead of schedule. In two games back from hand surgery, the Seahawks have had 19 offensive drives. Just one resulted in a touchdown. The solution for all this, according to Pete Carroll, is to run the ball more. In press conferences this week, Carroll reaffirmed the importance of getting the ground game working. The problem is, it has not worked all season. Seattle ranks 21st running the football and faces a Top 10 defense against the rush.
I do not understand why Washington is not getting more respect either. A clean upset of Tampa Bay as a double-digit favorite followed by a win on the road as an underdog against Carolina did nothing to impact its power rating. It ranks higher than Seattle in all major categories and is deserving of a -3 tag at home. This opener was bad, and this contest number still presents value. Only one Monday game has been popular enough to make the Top 5 all season, so avoiding some extra volume could make this a pick that may also gain ground.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
