Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Here are his five ATS picks for Week 8 of the Circa Million betting contest.
Week 7 record: 3-2
Season to date: 21-14
Place: T-777 / 4,086
Week 8 picks
- Indianapolis -2.5
- Cleveland -3.5
- Philadelphia -3.5
- San Francisco -4
- New Orleans +5
Indianapolis -2.5
After a slow start to the season, the Colts are beginning to get healthy and play solid football. The offense ranks 11th after seven weeks and will be as healthy as they have been the entire season this week against Tennessee. Bettors may point to the Week 3 loss where the Colts closed a 5.5-point dog and wonder why the extreme change, but it is important to remember Carson Wentz played the game with two sprained ankles in addition to other key injuries.
At full health, the Colts match up well against the Titans offense. They are the top-rated run defense in the league and their zone coverage will limit explosive passes from Ryan Tannehill, who is without Julio Jones. Short price, Colts cover.
Cleveland -3.5
If any team needed extra rest, it was Cleveland. The Browns were ravaged with injuries entering and coming out of their Thursday night game against the Denver Broncos. With an extra three days at home, Cleveland enters this game in much better shape. Baker Mayfield will start under center, Nick Chubb will start in the backfield, and all five offensive linemen will be out on the field together.
Odell Beckham Jr. is a legitimate game-time decision, but the focus should be on the run for Cleveland with Chubb back, D’Ernest Johnson proving to be a sufficient backup, and the Steelers’ defense on the other side which ranks 22nd in rush success rate.
Philadelphia -3.5
It is likely that the Lions are a popular pick this week. Many bettors believe that Detroit is in fact a good team. The press conferences from HC Dan Campbell make it appear that they are playing well, but the team has been non-competitive in every week this season trailing by double digits late in the third or fourth quarter. Detroit has not scored more than 20 points since the opening week of the season and the offense could be restricted with both running backs - and safety valves for Jared Goff - at less than 100 percent.
As odd as it seems, the Eagles at this short number might be a play against many contest entrants.
San Francisco -4
One of the most predictive quarterback stats is EPA+CPOE. Through eight weeks, Justin Fields ranks dead last in the NFL for any QB that has attempted more than 150 throws. His 39 percent passing success rate also ranks dead last in the NFL. The only game which he has thrown for more than 200 yards came against the Detroit Lions (206), who rank dead last in the NFL for pass coverage.
Although the 49ers’ defense has not been spectacular, this is a team that is average in the NFL and in every way poses a big challenge for the struggling rookie QB. The 49ers are a much worse team near the halfway point than preseason expectations, but this is a team that should be laying more than four on the road vs. Fields and Chicago.
New Orleans +5
Looking at the final scoreboard, no team is playing better football in the NFL during the month of October than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have been in complete control of their last four games start to finish. However, their opponents leave much to be desired. New England, Miami, Philadelphia, and Chicago are all average teams at best. Jameis can test this Buccaneers secondary - and Payton has the smarts to game plan into it - which ranks 19th in pass success rate defense despite the easy schedule of opponents.
Not only will the Buccaneers face a step up in opponent on offense, but defense too. New Orleans ranks fourth overall, fourth against the rush, and fifth against the pass. More reinforcements are on the way too. David Onyemata returns, Marshon Lattimore is healthy and the Saints are at 100 percent. Too many points for the Bucs to be laying.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
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