Bless the late-season schedule that gives us Saturdays full of NFL football. The Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals will conclude a Week 16 Saturday slate as the home Cards look to halt a two-game skid, while the Colts will want to build off their win last week vs. New England.
Is Jonathan Taylor going to make an MVP push in a plus matchup? Can Kyler Murray rebound after a disastrous game against the Lions last week?
Find out in our free player props and predictions for Colts vs. Cardinals.
Colts vs Cardinals prop picks
- Jonathan Taylor Over 106.5 rushing yards
- Kyler Murray Under 27.5 rushing yards
- Nyheim Hines Over 16.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Colts vs Cardinals TNF props
Taylor made
Jonathan Taylor sits as the No. 3 betting favorite to capture the league’s MVP at +800 but dismantling the Cardinals’ rush defense, ranked 23rd in success rate, could certainly help him draw closer to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Taylor leads the league in rushing by a whopping 424 yards, which is 39 percent more than second-place Joe Mixon’s 1,094 yards. He runs to a 5.6 yards per carry clip and is aided by one of the best run blocking offensive lines in football. He’ll face an Arizona defense that gives up 130 rushing yards per game at home and at 4.8 ypc. Craig Reynolds rushed for 112 yards versus the Cardinals last week and we still don’t know who he is.
The Cardinals have improved at stopping the run, as they were once No. 32 in defensive run success, but last week showed us that you can only contain Taylor for so long before he busts a long run like did versus the Patriots. Taylor finished with 170 rushing yards against the No. 5 DVOA rush defense and has 61 carries over his last two games. Taylor’s big-play ability should worry the Cardinals, who allow a rush of 10-plus yards at a league-high rate of 16%.
With Arizona's offense sputtering of late, scoring just 35 points over its last two games, and having to play against a tough Indianapolis defense that ranks second in rush EPA, this game should stay game-script neutral which will keep Frank Reich’s team in run mode yet again.
Taylor is a perfect 9-0 to the Over on his rushing yard prop (opening number) and despite Saturday's lofty 106.5 rushing yards, which ties a season-high (the same versus the Texans where he ran for 143 yards), we’re still getting on this Over.
Taking the average of the difference between Taylor’s ypc, 5.6, and the Cardinals’ ypc allowed, 5.2, and dividing it by 107 yards, Taylor would need just 21 carries to top this total.
PICK: Jonathan Taylor Over 106.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Show no Murray
Speaking of MVPs, Arizona’s Kyler Murray has looked anything but one since returning from an ankle injury that cost him three games, as he is 1-2 SU with three interceptions to three passing touchdowns over that stretch. He looked erratic versus a Lions team that produced plenty of pressure despite sitting 28th in pressure percentage on the season. Murray was missing starting center Rodney Hudson and it’s unclear if the club will have him back for Saturday. His backup, Max Garcia, also missed practice Wednesday and is questionable.
Hudson also missed some time earlier in the season — three games from Week 6 to 8 — and in that time Murray rushed for a total of 37 yards. Last week in Detroit without Hudson, Murray had four rushes for just three yards in a game where the Cards were chasing points.
Indianapolis Linebacker Darius Leonard is one of the best at his position and will likely be responsible for keeping Murray contained. Josh Allen had just two rushes for 18 yards versus the Colts in Week 11 while Lamar Jackson was held to 4.4 ypc earlier in the season.
Murray’s opening rushing total has dropped in back-to-back weeks as the Arizona QB is 2-8 O/U on his rushing prop on the year. The ankle likely isn’t helping either. This is the lowest his rushing total has been since he returned from injury but from Weeks 6 through 8, his rushing total averaged 27 yards which makes this number much easier to swallow.
PICK: Kyler Murray Under 27.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Read between the Hines
The Cardinals allow a healthy 42 receiving yards to opposing running backs and Indianapolis’ Nyheim Hines is a solid pass catcher that runs the two-minute drill and could see his snap count rise again with Taylor getting an unsustainable workload. He saw just two targets last week versus the Patriots, but he topped 17 yards in five of his six previous games before the Week 15 victory.
As Taylor's rushing workload has increased of late, his receiving role has decreased as he’s seen zero targets in his last two games. Hines sits third on the team in targets and with Carson Wentz coming off a season-low 57 passing yards, it would make sense for Reich to give Wentz a little more work in the passing game.
The Cardinals haven’t seen a half-decent pass-catching back since Week 13, when David Montogmery caught eight of nine targets for 51 yards. Christian McCaffrey and Ameer Abdullah caught all 14 of their targets for 95 yards in Week 10 while Elijah Mitchell and Aaron Jones topped their receiving totals in the two games prior to that. None of the Cardinals’ starting linebackers grade positively in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
The Over 16.5 receiving yards for Hines rounds out our Saturday night prop card in what we hope could be a first-half winner.
PICK: Nyheim Hines Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
