The Indianapolis Colts are off to the desert to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 of the NFL season on Saturday. The Colts have been playing some inspired football of late while the Cardinals have lost consecutive games they probably shouldn't have against the Rams and especially the lowly Lions.
This is the second of two games taking place on Christmas Day and it should be a very competitive matchup if both teams bring their A games. NFL betting lines opening with Arizona as a 1.5-point home favorite before moving to -3 on Saturday afternoon.
Is Santa going to reward the Cards for being good this year or will Indianapolis dump coal in their stocking? We let you know what we think with our best free Colts vs. Cardinals betting picks and predictions for December, 25, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m.
Colts vs Cardinals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line has seen modest movement with the Cardinals opening at -1.5 and the Over/Under at 48.5 before shifting to Arizona -2.5 after news that multiple Colts offensive linemen would miss the game.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Colts vs Cardinals predictions
Predictions made on 12/24/2021 at 1 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Colts vs Cardinals game info
• Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
• Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL NETWORK
Colts at Cardinals betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Colts: Kemoko Turay DE (Out), Quenton Nelson G (Out), Ryan Kelly C (Out), Mark Glowinski G (Out), Rock Ya-Sin CB (Out), Andrew Sendejo S (Out), Julian Blackmon S (Out), Quenton Nelson G (Out), Parris Campbell WR (Out).
Cardinals: Markus Golden OLB (Probable), Andy Lee P (Out), Max Garcia OG (Questionable), Zach Ertz (Probable), Isaiah Simmons LB (Probable), James Conner RB (Questionable), Rodney Hudson C (Out), Rondale Moore WR (Questionable), Jordan Phillips DL (Out), Antoine Wesley WR (Probable), DeAndre Hopkins WR (Out), Robert Alford CB (Out), J.J. Watt DE (Out), Maxx Williams TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Cardinals.
Colts vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
After starting the season 1-4, the Colts have won seven of their last nine games, with none bigger than last weekend's 27-17 victory over the New England Patriots. The Colts have gone 6-3 ATS over that nine-game stretch and their only two losses during that span came on a last-minute touchdown to the Super Bowl-favorite Buccaneers and in overtime to the Titans who still had Derrick Henry.
The Cardinals' season has practically been the polar opposite. They began the year going 7-0 (6-1 ATS) but have since lost four of seven — none more humiliating than last week's 30-12 defeat to the cellar-dwelling Lions.
The Cards were awful in every phase of that game with their offense stalling at the goal line, their defense making Jared Goff and an undrafted running back from Kutztown University look like Pro-Bowlers, and their linemen on both sides getting bossed around in the trenches. Pro Bowl quarterback Kyler Murray looked lost without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (who will be out at least until the playoffs), completing 56.1% of his passes and throwing his sixth interception in his last five games while scrambling for just three yards on four carries.
The Cardinals were second in the league in defense DVOA through Week 9 of the season, according to Football Outsiders, but since Week 10 they rank just 15th. Their offense has also regressed, scoring a touchdown on just 33.3% of their trips inside the red zone since Murray came back from an ankle injury at the beginning of the month. They also rank just 18th in the league in EPA/play and 16th in Success Rate in the three games since their franchise QB returned.
The Colts have turned things up on both sides of the ball, with their stop unit ranking fourth in the league in defense DVOA since Week 10, while their offense ranks fifth in EPA/play and sixth in Success Rate over the same period of time.
Running back Jonathan Taylor has been guiding Indy's offensive sleigh, leading the NFL with 1,518 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry, while adding another 336 yards receiving. Although the Colts will be missing their entire interior offensive line with Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski testing positive on Wednesday and center Ryan Kelly dealing with family loss, the Cards have struggled against the run.
Arizona ranks just 27th in the league with 4.6 yards allowed per rush attempt. That will allow Indy to control the clock and keep Murray & Co. off the field.
The Colts are in a bit of a letdown spot following their victory over the Pats, but Arizona is fading down the stretch and hasn't benefited from home-field advantage, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at State Farm Stadium. With the Colts covering the spread in five straight contests on the road, back them to come away from the desert with a victory.
Prediction: Colts moneyline (+110)
Over/Under analysis
The Colts have gone a sizzling 11-1 O/U in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record, which suggests that they can put up points against anybody in the league but also have a tough time containing explosive foes. That makes sense, given that they've scored at least 30 points in seven of their last nine games, averaging 32.2 ppg over that span.
That includes some impressive offensive performances against the Patriots, Bills, and Bucs - all Top-7 defensive teams when it comes to both DVOA and EPA/play. However, they've also given up more than 30 points to the Bucs, Ravens, and Titans, and even surrendered 486 yards and 30 points to the Jets with Mike White at the helm.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 7-3 to the Over in their previous 10 contests against teams with a winning record. They've given up at least 30 points in three of their last five games, which includes contests against the Panthers and Lions. Their middling offensive performances over the last two weeks have been due to poor execution more than actually struggling to move the ball.
The Cards rolled up 447 yards of offense against the Rams in Week 14, and advanced inside the Lions' 10-yard line on four occasions last week, but came away with just six points for their efforts. If they keep moving the chains, they'll eventually start punching the ball into the end zone again. Take the Over.
Prediction: Over 49 (-110)
Best bet
You can't give too much credit to Santa Claus without also giving recognition to the nameless elves that toil in his workshop the rest of the year. The same is true for Taylor and that dominant Indianapolis offensive line he plays behind.
That said, while that O-line is fantastic, the Colts also rank second in the league in second-level yards, which is a combination of downfield blocking along with Taylor's vision and ability to make tacklers miss once he breaks the line.
The Cardinals defensive line hasn't looked the same since J.J. Watt underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, and their linebackers miss way too many tackles. They rank dead-last in the league in second-level yards allowed, and allow 10 or more yards on 16 percent of carries to running backs this season.
The Over/Under on Taylor's rushing yards total is very high, but he's rushed for over 110 yards in five of his last six contests. In the only game during that stretch where Taylor went below that number, he carried the rock just 16 times for 83 yards against one of the league's best run defenses in the Bucs. Considering the Colts lost that game, expect them to learn from that mistake and feed Taylor in this contest.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 102.5 rushing yards (-114)
