The 7-8 Indianapolis Colts still have an outside shot at the playoffs depending on Saturday’s results, but first, they must defeat the 2-13 New York Giants.
The Colts are now 6-1 this season against teams with a losing record, which bodes well for their remaining schedule against two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Giants have lost 10 consecutive games and seem to be well on their way to securing that number one overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. My Colts vs. Giants predictions are honing in on a player prop.
Find out why I am backing Jonathan Taylor in my NFL picks for Sunday, December 29. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, with the game airing on FOX.
Colts vs Giants prediction
Colts vs Giants spread
The Colts opened as 8.5-point favorites, but the spread has fallen to 7.5, as of Friday afternoon.
If this spread stays above a full touchdown, I must lean towards taking the Giants to cover the spread. The Colts have seven wins this season and every single one has been by one possession.
The Colts and Anthony Richardson just do not have the type of team that can blow anyone out, so I must go with the Giants on this big spread.
Colts vs Giants moneyline
Despite taking the Giants to cover the spread, I just cannot see them winning this game outright.
The Giants will be starting Drew Lock for a fourth time, and it has not been pretty for him with a 52.7% completion percentage and only one touchdown to four interceptions. The Colts will get this win on the road, but the odds are not worth taking at -400.
Colts vs Giants Over/Under
The Giants have allowed 30+ points in three of the past five games, including 34 points last week to a rookie quarterback in his first start. The Colts have allowed 30+ points in each of the last two weeks and 21+ points in each of the last eight games.
This total is way too low for how both defenses have been playing recently, so I really like the Over here.
My best bet
Jonathan Taylor Over 101.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Last week, Jonathan Taylor made amends for his mistake in the game against the Denver Broncos in which he dropped the ball before the goal line. He rushed for 218 yards on 29 carries and had three touchdowns. That was his second career 200-yard rushing game and his sixth game this season with at least 100 yards rushing.
Now he is going up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. The New York Giants rank 31st in rushing yards allowed and have allowed the second most rushes of 10+ yards this season. However, the worst stat they have is rushing yards allowed over expected.
The Giants have allowed +429 rushing yards over expected to running backs this season, which is by far the worst in the NFL. The next worst is the Las Vegas Raiders at +238 rushing yards over expected. Meanwhile, Taylor has rushed for +179 yards over expected, which is sixth most among running back this season.
The Giants have a solid pass defense, ranking seventh in the league. A lot of that has to do with game script, but still is not something that the Indianapolis Colts will play around with knowing their strengths. Anthony Richardson only threw the ball 11 times last week against the Titans.
I expect the Colts to stick to what works against a defense that has some major issues stopping the run. Taylor should get enough volume here to hit triple digits on the ground, even if he does not break out one long run. That makes him my best bet of this contest.
Colts vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Jonathan Taylor 100+ rushing yards
Over 40.5
Anthony Richardson anytime TD
To go along with our best bet, I am adding the game total Over to our same game parlay. Each of the last four matchups between these two teams have gone Over the total. Each of the last three and five of the past six Colts games have gone Over the total.
Finally, I will add Anthony Richardson to also find the endzone with his legs. Richardson has a rushing touchdown in each of his past three games and the Giants weakness is their run defense.
Both Taylor and Richardson will get their opportunities, and Richardson has better odds for our parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Giants odds
Colts vs Giants live odds
Colts vs Giants opening odds
- Spread: Giants +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Colts moneyline (-400 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Colts vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants are 3-11-1 against the spread this season and are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games.
- The Giants have covered each of the last two matchups between these two teams.
- The Under is receiving 39% of the money despite getting only 27% of the bets.
- The Over has hit in four of the past eight Giants games and five of the past six Colts games.
- 66% of Covers Consensus users are backing Indianapolis on the spread, while 55% are taking the Over.
Colts vs Giants betting trend to know
The New York Giants have only hit the moneyline in four of their last 21 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Giants.
How to watch Colts vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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