Fresh off their dramatic, last-second win last week, the Detroit Lions will look to move to 4-3 as the rested Indianapolis Colts come to town. The Colts trail the Titans by one game for the AFC South lead and have benefitted greatly from an easy schedule to start the year.
NFL betting odds saw the Colts open at -2.5 and that number is starting to lean to the -3, but hasn’t moved off the -2.5 on the main books as of Wednesday. The total has dropped a full point to 50 after opening at 51.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Colts vs. Lions for Sunday, November 1 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions betting preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at Ford Field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other Week 8 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Colts: Malik Hooker S (Out), Marlon Mack RB (Out).
Lions: Hunter Bryant TE (Out), Desmond Trufant CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the Colts’ last five games on turf. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Lions.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Indianapolis Colts’ easy schedule continues out of their bye as they face the 3-3 Lions. Detroit doesn't excel in any aspect and ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing/rushing offense and defense. The Colts have yet to play a well-rounded team this year as their schedule so far featured Jacksonville (league's worst defense), Minnesota (1-5 SU), New York Jets (hot garbage all around), Chicago (5-2 but a bottom-three offense) and Cincinnati (bottom-five defense). There is an argument to be made that the Lions could be Indy’s biggest challenge as they look to move to 5-2. The Colts have lost back-to-back games ATS and their overvalued defense allowed 50 total points to the Browns and Bengals in consecutive weeks.
The Lions have collected two wins in a row heading into Sunday, after earning a last-second win over the Falcons on the road in Week 7. They face a Colts team that has allowed nearly 800 yards in its last two games and is averaging just 65 yards rushing over that stretch. The Bengals had two receivers top 90 yards against the Colts before their bye, meaning Detroit WR Kenny Golladay could be in for a big game coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances. At six-foot-four, Golladay has a good height advantage over the Colts’ corners, who are six-foot-one and six-foot flat.
Don’t read too much into the Colts’ defense hype as Detroit should be able to move the ball against Indy and are very comfortable playing from behind. We are taking the home underdog in this one, and with the line at +2.5 and tilting to the +3, this may be a good line to grab later in the week at a better number.
Please note: Recently acquired DL Everson Griffen will not play this week, due to COVID-19 protocols, and instead will make his Lions debut in Week 9.
PREDICTION: Detroit +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
This is the only game on the schedule being played indoors this week, which is a great thing for handicapping as serious weather is expected to hit a lot of games this week. The 50-point total is the highest that the Colts have seen this year, but Philip Rivers and the offense are coming off a 371-yard passing performance and have put up 50 points in their last two games—which both hit the Over.
Detroit has seen its fair share of high totals too, as the Lions have had all but one of their games set at 50 or higher and they are 2-3 O/U in those games.
Both defenses have neutral success rates at stopping teams from scoring TDs in the red zone but their respected offenses are in the bottom half of the league on converting TDs inside the 20. The Colts are scoring TDs on just 52 percent of their red-zone trips and with the way they have run the ball lately — 77 yards per game since Week 4 — they could be seeing some third-and-longs. Both teams are averaging over 2.3 field goals a game across their last three contests, which ranks in the Top 5.
Field goals and struggling running games are forcing us to take the Under in a game that should see a lot of Over attention with all the weather problems facing Week 8.
PREDICTION: Under 50.5 (-110)
Team total pick
As we mentioned above, these two teams have been settling for field goals all year. Detroit sits third in the league at field goals attempted per game (2.7) while no team in the NFL is kicking more three-point tries than the Colts (three per game). With this game being played indoors, both teams may attempt longer field goals, which Detroit did last week inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome (50-, 51-, 46- and 49-yard attempts).
We mentioned above that both teams have struggled to gain yards on the ground, as both teams rank outside the Top 15 in rushing offense, and with the field shrinking inside the attacking 30-yard line, this could be a huge factor of both teams not finishing off drives.
Betting on field goals with the Colts this year is also a fun wager as you get to cheer for this guy.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis/Detroit Over 3.5 field goals (-113)
Colts vs Lions betting card
- Detroit +2.5 (-105)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
- Indianapolis/Detroit Over 3.5 field goals (-113)
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