Colts vs Patriots Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Indy's Offense Will Center Around Jackson

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Foxborough in Week 9 to face off against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

For the Colts, they're looking to recover from two consecutive losses. Meanwhile, New England is hoping to build off a huge divisional win over the Jets last weekend. 

Which team will prevail on Sunday evening? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Colts vs. Patriots on November 6. 

Colts vs Patriots best odds

Colts vs Patriots picks and predictions

It's been tough sledding for Indianapolis in 2022. Not only has the Matt Ryan era ended prematurely, but star running back Jonathan Taylor and All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard have been banged up all season long.

With Taylor officially ruled out and backup RB Nyheim Hines being dealt to the Bills earlier this week, Indy will rely on Deon Jackson in the backfield on Sunday. 

Sam Ehlinger was fine in his debut last week, completing 17 of 23 passes for 201 yards with no turnovers. It'll be tough sledding for Ehlinger to fare any better on Sunday against a New England team whose secondary star defensive back Jack Jones. The rookie leads all corners with an 87.4 grade at Pro Football Focus, and Jonathan Jones ranks 14th at 76.9. 

The Colts have been a run-heavy team ever since Andrew Luck retired and will remain that way on Sunday to take pressure off Ehlinger. The Patriots are in the Bottom 10 of teams defending the run, allowing an average of 126 yards per game. 

In the two games that Jackson started for the Colts, the undrafted Duke product has surpassed 81.5 rushing and receiving yards combined both times.

Head coach Frank Reich's playcalling for Ehlinger will be reasonably vanilla against a defensive wizard like Bill Belichick. Look for Jackson's number to be called early and often, both on the ground and through the air on short passes. 

My best bet: Deon Jackson Over 76.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120)

Colts vs Patriots spread analysis

The Patriots opened as -6 favorites ahead of this Week 9 tilt. The Colts haven't won a single game in Foxborough since 2006, and their last five games as a road team against New England have all been defeats of at least 14+ points. 

To be fair, this is Indianapolis's first trip to Massachusetts since Tom Brady left the Pats. Indy also got the better of New England at home last year, forcing Mac Jones to throw two interceptions in a 27-17 Week 15 win at Lucas Oil Stadium. 

While it's hard to have faith in betting on Mac Jones, he won't have to do much against a Colts' team averaging just 16.1 points per game heading into Sunday. Six points are a few too many for me to lay on the Pats. Instead, I would consider taking the Patriots' first-half moneyline or spread. 

Indianapolis is notorious for starting games off slow and has yet to hold a lead at halftime. The Colts have also trailed all eight of their games entering the fourth quarter this season. 

Colts vs Patriots Over/Under analysis

This game will be virtually unwatchable if you like offense, and I expect most of the points to come from the legs of ChaseMcLaughlin and Nick Folk. The Under is 7-0 in the Colts' last seven road games and is 5-2 in the Patriots' last seven November matches. 

Neither offense is capable of big plays, and even success offensively would mean slow, methodical drives that take plenty of time off the clock. Ehlinger and Jones make for a bettor's dream when it comes to the Under, and the Colts' last two games have both gone under Sunday's total of 40. 

Even though this matchup features the lowest O/U of Week 9, I'm inclined to take it. The Under has cashed in seven of Indy's eight games this year, while New England is sitting at 4-4. 

Colts vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Patriots.

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