Week 10 of the NFL season opens with a primetime showcase between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football.
The Titans opened as 2.5-point NFL betting favorites at home and while it looked like a move to -3 was imminent, the line suddenly swung to as low as -1 Monday morning with early sharp play steaming the spread near a pick’em.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Colts vs. Titans on November 12.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Nashville is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-40s with light winds blowing up to 5 mph Thursday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Colts: Jack Doyle TE (Questionable), T.Y. Hilton WR (Questionable), Kemoko Turay DE (Questionable).
Titans: Jadeveon Clowney DE (Questionable), Adam Humphries WR (Questionable), Dane Cruikshank CB (Questionable), Rodger Saffold III G (Questionable), MyCole Pruitt TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 13-6 in Colts’ last 19 games as road underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Titans.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Titans snapped a two-game slide with an ugly victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 9, grinding out a 24-17 victory as 6.5-point home chalk in what was a poor performance from both offenses. The Titans attack managed only 136 yards passing and star running back Derrick Henry was bottled up for just 68 yards on 21 carries by a solid Chicago stop unit.
Tennessee has watched its offensive production dip over the past three games, averaging only 22.7 points in that span, but meet another sputtering scoring attack in the Colts Thursday night. Indianapolis held a 10-7 halftime lead over Baltimore in Week 9, but was outscored 17-0 in the final two quarters as QB Philip Rivers connected on only 11 of his 24 passes in the second half.
It’s a short week and that leaves little time to remedy those offensive issues for the Colts. The Titans get to stay at home and will keep things simple, leaning on the punishing ground game of Henry to wear down the Indy defense over the course of four quarters. Henry has a tendency to rebound from lackluster games with big efforts in the following contest, posting triple-figure days on the ground after his three sub-100 performance this season.
On the year, the Colts own the No. 3 rushing defense in terms of average yards allowed. But over the past four contests, Indianapolis has allowed running totals of 110, 98 and 124 yards. Even with their dip in scoring, the Titans ground game is still picking up 4.8 yards per carry and will benefit from facing a defense that last played a bruising Baltimore attack and is traveling on a short week.
PREDICTION: Tennessee -1 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
This total is ticking downward, opening as high as 50.5 and dropping to 49 points.
While Indianapolis may not be as good as its high-level defense numbers would indicate, this is still a strong stop unit. The Colts have allowed an average of 24 points against over the past three contests and have a ball-hawking secondary that’s totaled 11 interceptions on the season. They keep the play in front of them, giving up only 23 passing plays of 20 yards or more and just two of 40-plus.
That will have Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill playing it safe and keeping this playbook short. The Titans’ air attack has done just that over the past three games, slimming its average yards per attempt to only 6.9, compared to 7.6 yards per attempt over the first five games of the schedule. That dink-and-dump approach, coupled with a steady dose of Henry, should help keep the clock running – something the Titans haven’t been great at the past three games – and hold the scoring low.
PREDICTION: Under 49 (-110)
First Half Prop
The makeup of these two teams so far in 2020 is complete opposites. The Colts have started games strong, only to have the wheels fall off in the final quarters, while the Titans have failed to launch in the opening frames and then relied on second-half surges.
Indianapolis owns an average margin of plus-4.8 points in the first half so far this season and has averaged 17 points in the first 30 minutes in the past three games. Tennessee, on the other hand, has an average margin of minus-5.7 in the first half over its last three outings.
Given the move in the spread, this one will be very close at the break and Indianapolis could have the edge on the scoreboard—which is just where Tennessee wants it.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis first-half moneyline (+101)
Colts vs Titans betting card
- Tennessee -1 (-110)
- Under 49 (-110)
- Indianapolis first-half moneyline (+101)
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