Commanders vs Bengals Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 3

A non-conference clash serves as the second of two Monday Night Football games in Week 3, with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Washington Commanders in the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

Cincinnati is off to one of its trademark slow starts, falling to 0-2 after a close loss at Kansas City last Sunday, but our Commanders vs. Bengals predictions expect that to change in Week 3. Read more in our NFL picks below. 

Commanders vs Bengals predictions

Early spread lean
Bengals -8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The look-ahead line for this non-conference contest was at Bengals -7 in the summer. After the events of Week 2, books opened Cincy at -7.5 and that jumped up to the dead numbers of -8 and -8.5 early in the week.

If you like the Cincinnati Bengals, you’ll want to get them as low as you can. Eight is a dead number in football betting, with less than 4% of games decided by exactly eight points. 

Books will move quickly through dead numbers, so if money shows on the home side, this spread will quickly bounce to -9 and -9.5. After a solid showing against the Chiefs in Week 2 and the desperation to earn their first win at home, there should be no shortage of public sentiment for Cincinnati. 

That appeal could be boosted if stud wideout Tee Higgins returns from injury in Week 3. Higgins missed the opening two games with a tender hamstring, but head coach Zac Taylor said the WR is improving and trending toward an appearance on MNF.

That gives this Bengals offense a needed shot in the arm. After two games, Joe Burrow & Co. sit middle of the pack in most offensive metrics but did look much stronger putting up 25 points in Kansas City.

Washington's defense, on the other hand, is having a tough time adjusting to Quinn’s schemes. The Washington Commanders rank 31st in defensive DVOA and dead last in EPA allowed per play through two games.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Bengals defense did all it could to keep Patrick Mahomes at bay last Sunday, but a pass interference penalty on the final drive of the game set up the Chiefs for a game-winning field goal.

Cincinnati did a great job putting a lid on the Chiefs' downfield attack and constantly hounded Mahomes, allowing only two offensive touchdowns to Kansas City. The Bengals have given up just one passing play of 20+ yards so far this season — which so happened to be a 44-yard TD strike from Mahomes — and rank 12th in EPA allowed per dropback.

Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels looked more comfortable throwing in Week 2’s win against New York but isn’t pushing the ball downfield, with the lowest intended air yards per attempt through two weeks (4.4). Should Washington fall behind quickly, the Commanders will have to trust his arm more than they would like.

Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is playing with plenty of tempo, topping the league in no-huddle, and some of the advanced metrics like Washington’s efficiency. The Commanders sit No. 4 in EPA per play entering Week 3 but just 20th in offensive DVOA. The Bengals will be their stiffest defensive test so far.

As for Cincy’s attack, it’s very much rooted in the passing game. The Bengals are throwing at the third-highest rate with a ho-hum rushing game that's picking up just 3.8 yards per carry. That said, given the big spread, Cincinnati could get up quickly with the air approach and then protect the lead with a slow pace and short-yardage plays in the second half.

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