Monday Night Football features two Heisman-winning quarterbacks from LSU when Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals host Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders in Week 3.
Burrow, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, is trying to get Cincinnati out of a 0-2 hole on the season while Daniels, who “struck a pose” last year for Louisiana State, is coming off his first victory as a pro.
I break down the NFL props odds for both QBs and give my best Commanders vs. Bengals predictions and NFL picks and predictions for September 23.
Jayden Daniels odds and props
My best bet:
Jayden Daniels to throw an interception — Yes (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Washington Commanders' new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is keeping it conservative with his rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels isn’t being asked to do too much, entering Week 3 with the lowest intended air yards per attempt in the NFL.
That “safe” playbook has caught the attention of the Cincinnati Bengals' secondary, with Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt telling reporters that the Commanders, “don’t make (Daniels) do a lot. They keep it really simple for him. Nice college offense.”
Given the big spread and taller total for Monday, Daniels and the Commanders will be playing from behind. That forces Kingsbury to push pass more than he’d like in Daniels’ third professional start, and puts the rookie at risk of ill-timed throws against a very savvy Cincy defense under Lou Anarumo.
The Bengals take a big step down in competition at the QB position when facing Daniels, coming off a huge AFC clash with Patrick Mahomes at Kansas City last Sunday.
Cincinnati did a good job containing the Super Bowl MVP, including two interceptions, and enters Week 3 ranked No. 13 in EPA allowed per dropback. The Bengals are a dangerous defense. They finished eighth in INTS in 2023 with 17 picks on the year and have recorded 13 interceptions in each of the two seasons prior.
Player projections for Washington’s first-year passer are bleak when it comes to potential interceptions, with models ranging from 0.67 to 0.9 INTs. My forecast comes out to 0.8 interceptions from Daniels, who will be forced into throwing deeper in Week 3.
Joe Burrow odds and props
My best bet:
Joe Burrow Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
You have a top-tier quarterback facing the bottom-ranked pass defense on Monday Night Football. So, naturally you look to the QB’s rushing yards, right?
In the case of Dan Quinn’s overly aggressive pass rush, yes.
Sure, this isn't exactly a "passing prop" like the headline says. If you want that, check out my best bet in the Monday Night Football picks and predictions piece. Nonetheless...
Washington’s new head coach likes to dial up the heat on opposing passers and enters Week 3 with the fourth highest blitz rate in the land. The Commanders have translated those extra rushers into 11 QB hurries and a pressure rate just shy of 30% through two games, boasting the 11th rated pass rush win rate at ESPN.
Joe Burrow has been sacked six times in 2024 with defenses using blitz-heavy schemes to disrupt his downfield looks. While he’s great at making stop units pay for bringing extra rushers, he also has the wheels to escape when plays break down.
He finished with only nine rushing yards in the loss to Kansas City (12.5 O/U) and had 15 yards on the ground versus New England in Week 1 (9.5 O/U). Burrow’s rushing total for Week 3 is at 11.5 yards Over/Under with player projections all north of that number.
His forecasts range from 12 to more than 19 rushing yards versus Washington, with my number sitting just shy of 14 yards on the ground.
Quinn’s defense has watched opposing QBs scramble for rushing outputs of 21 yards on three attempts from Baker Mayfield in Week 1 and 32 yards on five carries against Daniel Jones in Week 2.
Not intended for use in MA.
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