A trio of NFL Wild Card games wraps up when the Washington Commanders visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay has plenty of playoff pedigree while Washington hopes its star rookie quarterback can buck the trend of postseason pressure getting the best of most first-year starters.
I look at the NFC Wild Card odds and give my best early Commanders vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for January 12.
Commanders vs Buccaneers predictions
Early spread lean
Commanders +3 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread opened with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3-point favorite. While we did see some shops dip to -2.5, the line has risen back to the key number of a field goal with play on the home side — even hitting -3.5 before buyback on the Washington Commanders shaved that half-point away.
It’s a tough matchup to handicap given the hesitancy around backing a rookie QB in his first postseason start. Jayden Daniels, however, has surprised everyone since these teams kicked off the season back in Week 1. While there’s not much you can carry away from that opening game, Daniels is the best quarterback the Bucs have faced in a long time.
Tampa Bay’s passing defense was already suspect and showed weakness against legit air attacks early on. Over the past seven games, the quality of QB competition has been in the toilet with a series of backups and bottom-tier passers showing up on the schedule. That’s puffing up Tampa Bay’s defensive results, with five of those seven foes unable to crack 20 points.
Washington hits the tournament with a five-game winning streak powering the postseason push. The Commanders offense has been operating at a high level all season, sitting No. 4 in EPA per play, and will put the Bucs’ aggressive defense on its heels with an up-tempo scheme that thrives on hurry-up offense.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles blitzes at the second highest rate in the land, backing up that pass pressure with almost exclusively zone coverage. Daniels has played well beyond his years, especially against extra rushers, ranking among the top half of QBs versus the blitz and rating out as an elite passer against zone schemes.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 50.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is the biggest Over/Under on the Wild Card Weekend board, with the total opening at 49.5 and jumping to 50.5 with early opinions on the Over.
Going back to 2020, playoff totals of 50 points or more have produced a 6-9 O/U count, but I’m not balking at a high-scoring finish in Tampa Bay.
We’ve discussed the advantages for Daniels and this Commanders passing game, which could be compounded by injuries to the Buccaneers’ secondary.
As of Monday afternoon, starters Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead are listed as questionable after missing Week 18’s important outing versus New Orleans. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most passing plays of 20-plus yards, and if it can’t slow down the downfield attack of Washington, this matchup will quickly turn into a shootout.
The Bucs can return fire with Baker Mayfield and an offense rated just behind Washington in terms of EPA per play. That helped Tampa Bay finish 12-5 Over/Under in the regular season — right next to the Commanders' 11-6 O/U count.
Washington’s defense has also seen some of its late-season defensive numbers skewed by poor offensive opposition. The Commanders still wrap the regular season at No. 22 in EPA allowed per play with a real weakness to the run. The Bucs are just as dangerous through the air as they are on the ground, earning the third-highest yards per carry in the NFL.
These two combatants don’t leave many points on the table, either. Tampa Bay and Washington rank No. 4 and No. 6 in touchdown rate inside the red zone, with a combined average of 58 points per game.
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Commanders vs Buccaneers live odds
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