Commanders vs Cowboys Prop Bets: All of the Yards

Prop bet #1: Dak on the attack

This feels like a great matchup for the Dallas Cowboys offense. With 43 points against the L.A. Rams and 49 points against the New York Giants, the Cowboys have been explosive in their last two home games – and I expect more of the same against a Washington Commanders team that gave up 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the woeful Giants at the weekend.

That means a big afternoon for Dak Prescott. Prescott didn’t need to be lights out in Sunday’s win over the one-win Carolina Panthers, but he had thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his three previous games, including 404 yards and four touchdowns against New York in Week 10.

With a healthy receiving corps and CeeDee Lamb on pace for a career-high in receiving yards, Prescott has all the weapons he needs to fly past the Over on this passing yards prop.

I don’t trust Washington’s defense to hold up. That unit is allowing 9.7 yards per target (second worst in the NFL) and 14.9 yards per catch (third worst), so Prescott should get value for his completions on Thursday.

He hasn’t been afraid to take some deep shots either. He’s had a completion of at least 40 yards in two of his last three outings, and the Commanders’ pass rush doesn’t pack the same punch after their trade deadline moves.

Prescott’s completion rate has been north of 65% in each of his past five games, and I’m picking Dak to find enough open receivers to nail this prop.

Dak Prescott prop: Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Cooking up a storm

CeeDee Lamb has been the Cowboys’ go-to guy this year and he’s already breezed past 1,000 receiving yards, but Brandin Cooks’ return to form and fitness has been an under-the-radar good news story over the past month.

Cooks was a non-factor at the start of his first season in Dallas, with fewer than 30 receiving yards in all of his first four contests. But he seems to have turned a corner since Week 5, punishing defenses for overhelping on Lamb.

The obvious standout game for Cooks was his nine-catch, 173-yard effort against the Giants in Week 10, which included his third touchdown grab of the year. But the broader picture looks promising too. He’s had more than 40 receiving yards in three of his last four games, and his chemistry with Prescott looks much sharper.

Cooks and Michael Gallup should both get ample opportunities to feast on the Washington secondary in this Thanksgiving battle, and I like the Over on the Cooks receiving yards prop. With his ability to get open and pile on YAC, it’s a number that he could hit with just a couple of catches.

Even if this NFC East clash is tighter than the spread suggests, Cooks is in a good spot. He’s had at least four targets in eight of his nine games this season – and I see Prescott looking his way here too.

Brandin Cooks prop: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Scrambling Sam

Running for his life against this Cowboys front seven is unlikely to feature on Sam Howell’s list of favorite Thanksgiving activities, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Washington QB has time to survey the field from the pocket at AT&T Stadium.

Dallas ranks No.1 in pressure rate this year, and Howell will surely have to make plays with his legs to keep drives alive here. The threat of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson down the field should keep the Cowboys’ secondary busy, opening up room underneath for Howell to scramble.

It’s not just the style of this matchup that has me leaning towards the Over on Howell’s rushing yardage, though. The numbers tell the same story. Howell has had 17 or more yards on the ground in each of his last three games, including three carries for 35 yards against the Giants at the weekend.

That Week 12 loss to New York was a rough afternoon for Howell, who threw three interceptions (three of the Commanders’ six turnovers on the day). But he’s already bounced back from a four-pick disaster against the Buffalo Bills earlier this year, and the quick turnaround after Sunday gives him an immediate chance to steady the ship.

Howell has 209 rushing yards to his name already this year, and I expect Washington to use his athleticism to frustrate the Cowboys here. That feels like a recipe for the Over on his rushing yards prop.

Sam Howell prop: Over 14.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)