The Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon.
Washington is led by rookie phenom Jayden Daniels, while Philadelphia's attack is spearheaded by Offensive Player of the Year favorite Saquon Barkley.
My NFL picks are betting on both players to show up in this big game, and I'm also backing Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith to lead the way among Eagles' receivers. Here are my favorite Commanders vs. Eagles player props for January 26.
Commanders vs Eagles props
Daniels Over 223.5 passing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Barkley Over 127.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)- Smith Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Commanders vs Eagles prop picks for today
Jayden Daniels Over 223.5 passing yards -115 at Caesars
Don't let Jayden Daniels' running ability take away from the fact that he's also a highly efficient passer. The Washington Commanders quarterback finished the regular season sixth in the NFL in completion percentage (69%) and 11th in passer rating (100.1).
Daniels completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round before throwing for 299 yards versus Detroit last week. The rookie pivot looked shaky against the Philadelphia Eagles when these teams clashed in Week 11, but it's important to note that he suffered a bad cut on his throwing hand early in the third quarter. He was much better in the rematch in Week 16 when he led Washington to a comeback win by throwing for 258 yards and five touchdowns.
If you omit Washington's meaningless regular-season finale when he came out at halftime, Daniels has thrown for more than 225 yards in six of his last seven games.
With the Eagles installed as 6-point favorites, there's a good chance that Daniels will have a negative game script this week. Not to mention that with head coach Dan Quinn's willingness to go for it on fourth down, the Commanders should extend drives resulting in more dropbacks for Daniels.
Saquon Barkley Over 127.5 rushing yards -115 at Caesars
The O/U for Saquon Barkley's rushing yards prop is the highest in history this week, but I can't fade him in this matchup. Although opposing defenses know the run is coming, that hasn't stopped Barkley from rushing for 2,005 yards in the regular season despite facing a light box on just 18.6% of attempts.
The Rams knew the Eagles would rely on their ground game in wintry conditions last week and they still couldn't contain Barkley, who gashed them for 205 yards on 26 carries. Meanwhile, the Commanders were gashed on the ground in their Divisional Round game, surrendering 201 yards to Detroit.
The Commanders have struggled against the run all season, ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 27th in defensive rush EPA. They are also dead-last in the league in average yards allowed before contact to running backs, and Barkley ranks first with 2.64 yards before contact.
With Barkley eclipsing 145 yards in both regular season meetings against Washington, I'm willing to take the Over at 127.5.
DeVonta Smith Over 48.5 receiving yards -115 at Caesars
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is dealing with an MCL strain that could keep him in the pocket and force him to throw more. Unfortunately, his downfield options might be limited. Reliable tight end Dallas Goedert is hindered by an ankle injury, while A.J. Brown has a lingering knee injury and has posted just three catches for 10 yards in the playoffs.
With the Commanders likely using top corner Marshon Lattimore to shadow Brown, DeVonta Smith should have an easier matchup against Noah Igbinoghene out wide or rookie Mike Sainristil in the slot.
Smith was limited to 21 yards on four receptions last week, but that was due to heavy snow limiting downfield passing. We'll have clear skies and moderate 40-degree temps in Philadelphia this Sunday, making it easier for Hurts to throw the ball.
Prior to last week, Smith had racked up more than 50 receiving yards in four straight games. Most models are projecting between 53 and 63 yards for him this week.
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