Commanders vs Giants Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7: Finding the Pay Dirt Won't Come Easy for Commanders

The New York Giants hope a familiar foe can stop their freefall when they welcome the Washington Commanders to MetLife Stadium in Week 7.

New York is caught in a four-game spiral and has been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball during this slump. The status of quarterback Daniel Jones is the most impactful injury to the NFL odds, as he will once again not return from a neck injury this Sunday.

Washington, on the other hand, snapped its own three-game slide with a road victory this past weekend. The Commanders are playing their second straight away game and third road stop in four weeks when they venture to East Rutherford.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this NFC East rivalry and give my best NFL picks for the Commanders vs. Giants on October 22.

Commanders vs Giants odds

Commanders vs Giants predictions

The New York Giants get a bit of a break against the Washington Commanders in Week 7 compared to their recent foes. The G-Men have faced elite competition along the way to a 1-5 straight up mark — especially in terms of offense.

Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo all sit Top 10 in EPA per play entering Week 7. Washington, on the other hand, is No. 19 in that advanced stat. It’s averaging just over 22 points per game while running the second-slowest tempo in terms of seconds per play.

The Commanders come into this NFC East rivalry off a very misconstrued result against the Falcons last weekend.

Washington scored 24 points but amassed only 193 total yards off offense — good for just 3.9 yards per play. Turnovers from Atlanta set up the Commanders for easy scores, skewing the offensive output of this group.

Quarterback Sam Howell put in a ho-hum effort, completing just 14 of 23 passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. He threw three TD passes but continued to absorb punishment behind this offensive line.

Howell was sacked five times, bringing his total to a league-high 34 sacks taken through six games. He’ll feel the heat again this weekend with Wink Martindale and the Giants defense on deck in Week 7.

Martindale dials up the blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (34.4% of dropbacks). While it hasn’t led to many sacks, the Giants rank 10th in pass rush win rate and can cause enough chaos to keep Howell hearing footsteps.

Howell has faced the seventh-highest pressure rate among starting QBs despite not taking on many aggressive defenses, with the likes of Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Arizona sitting near the bottom in blitz rate.

When he is faced with extra pass rushes, Howell ranks 34th vs. the blitz among all QBs at PFF, completing 61% of passes and averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt in those situations. He’s taking far too long to get the ball out (2.5 seconds in pocket) and is getting punished for it.

Offensively, the Giants will play ball control and look to the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley back in action.

New York ran on almost 47% of snaps in the loss to Buffalo on Sunday and can chew up clock and possession against a Commanders defense ranked among the bottom third in EPA allowed per handoff and yards given up per carry.

Given Howell’s weakness against the blitz, the G-Men playing keep away, and the weather calling for a windy Sunday in East Rutherford, I don’t see this slow-motion Washington attack getting enough touches to top its team total of 20.5 points in Week 7.

My best bet: Commanders Team Total Under 20.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Giants same-game parlay

Commanders Team Total Under 20.5

Commanders moneyline

Darren Waller Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

+1,000 at bet365

The Commanders managed 24 points on less than 200 total yards last week, thanks to Atlanta turnovers. That's skewing Washington's scoring prowess heading into Week 7.

The Giants are hurting bad on both sides of the ball, and while I'm calling for a low-scoring game, Washington will get the win. Also, bet365 offers early payout on moneylines if a team goes up by 17 points or more.

Darren Waller is starting to see his targets climb, and most projections call for more than 40 yards from the G-Men's tight end.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

The offseason odds had New York laying -2.5 for this classic NFC East encounter, but the Giants’ rough start to the season has manipulated this market.

Before the events of Week 6, the look-ahead line had the G-Men as 1.5-point home underdogs. But with another Giants’ loss and a Washington win — alongside Jones’ status being up in the air — the official Week 7 spread hit the board at Commanders -2 at most sportsbooks.

As of Tuesday, this spread ranges from Washington -1.5 to -2.5 with Covers Consensus showing 61% of the early picks siding with the Commanders.

My NFL power ratings produced a raw rating (not adjusted for injuries or situational spots) of New York -0.88. However, with Jones listed as out and a number of Giants starters on the offensive line either questionable or out, you can see why the market is skewing toward the visitor.

Also helping that market projection is the Giants’ inability to score. Outside of a miracle comeback against Arizona in Week 2 (31-29 win), New York has been limited to 16 points or less in the other six games on the schedule and boasts a TD percentage of just 31.25% inside the red zone (third lowest).

The Over/Under total for this divisional dance hit the board as high as 41.5 points but has tumbled all the way down to as low as 39.5 as of Tuesday.

Washington’s offense is expected to do the lion’s share of the scoring, given it looks much better than the Giants’ current production. It’s averaging 22.2 points an outing and 12th in points per play so far in 2023 (0.358).

The Commanders’ ground game is above average, ranked 10th in EPA per handoff, but offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has called for the run on just 33% of snaps. Sam Howell has been fine when you account for the league-high 34 sacks he's taken thus far.

The weather for this Week 7 game could also impact the scoring, with wind gusts up to 28 mph for East Rutherford on Sunday. That will plague deeper passes and make kicking longer field goals tougher, with breezes blowing WNW diagonally across MetLife Stadium.

Commanders vs Giants betting trend to know

Under head coach Ron Rivera, Washington is 12-8-1 ATS (59.5%) when coming off a win with a 7-12-2 Over/Under count (62% Unders) in those games since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Giants.

Commanders vs Giants game info

Commanders vs Giants latest injuries

Commanders vs Giants weather

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