The Cleveland Browns are slight home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys to open the season on Sunday afternoon.
With a tight line, let’s look at my favorite NFL player props for Sunday’s matchup.
Cowboys vs Browns props
- Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at BetMGM)
- Lamb Over 6.5 receptions (-135 at BetMGM)
- Njoku Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Cowboys vs Browns props
Prop bet #1: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is entering his ninth NFL season and he’s looking to get paid. After leading the NFL with 36 touchdown passes last year, the veteran is hoping to follow that up with similar numbers this season.
The Cleveland Browns may have been one of the best defenses in the league in terms of passing yards last year, but they were right with the rest of the pack when you look at their 23 passing touchdowns allowed.
We’re getting a pretty solid number here at +130 on Prescott to throw for at least two touchdowns. He did just that in 11 of his 17 games last season, including throwing at least three TDs in six of those contests.
The Browns were also susceptible to allowing multiple passing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson, Gardner Minshew, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Jake Browning, and CJ Stroud all threw for multiple TDs last year.
Prescott should be able to add his name to this list — or at the very least has a better chance than this +130 price suggests.
Prop bet #2: CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 receptions
While Prescott is awaiting his payday, Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb just got his. The 25-year-old wideout signed a four-year, $136 million extension a few weeks ago.
Lamb led the NFL with 135 catches last season, which was a career-high after catching 107 balls the year prior. The wide receiver went Over 6.5 receptions in nine of his 17 starts last season, including at least nine targets in every game from Week 7 through the Cowboys’ playoff loss. That includes at least 13 targets in seven of his last 12 contests.
The Cowboys didn’t pay Lamb to be a decoy. The Browns’ defense may be tough, but Dallas will find a way to get the ball into their best receiver’s hands.
Prop bet #3: David Njoku Over 43.5 receiving yards
Cleveland tight end David Njoku took on a bigger role in the Browns’ offense last season. After just 80 targets in 2022, Njoku hauled in 81 catches on 123 targets last year. They were both career-highs for the tight end, who also set a personal best with 882 receiving yards.
Njoku’s role in the Browns’ passing game shouldn’t change too much this season. The addition of Jerry Jeudy may take some targets away from the tight end, but Njoku remains a big weapon for Deshaun Watson.
The former first-round pick went Over 43.5 receiving yards in 11 of his 16 games last season and added 93 yards in the Browns’ playoff defeat. The Cowboys' defense was also victimized by tight ends a bit last season, as nine different players from the position recorded at least 40 yards against them.
Look for Njoku to continue that trend at home in Week 1.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
